My top 10 things to watch Monday, Feb. 23 1. We’re headed for a down open this morning on Wall Street. President Donald Trump already raised his baseline global tariff rate to 15% from 10% following Friday’s Supreme Court decision. Oil prices were largely flat after the United States took no action against Iran over the weekend. 2. Club name Eli Lilly is once again triumphant over Novo Nordisk . The Danish drugmaker’s next-generation obesity drug, CagriSema, wasn’t more effective than Lilly’s Zepbound in a head-to-head trial. Novo shares tanked 15%. Lilly added more than 3%. Keep buying Lilly. 3. Is there a private equity crisis brewing — being laid bare by concerns that AI is eating software and the massive spending by the hyperscalers on data centers? I explored all these crosscurrents in my Sunday column and will look at what they mean for our portfolio during Friday’s Monthly Meeting for Club members. 4. RBC Capital Markets upgraded Spain’s Banco Santander to buy from hold ahead of its investor day this week. Santander is the best bank to own in Europe, and it deserves a valuation premium. It’s also expanding in the U.S., announcing an acquisition of Connecticut-based Webster Financial earlier this month. 5. Google-parent Alphabet was upgraded to buy from hold at Wells Fargo. Analysts said it’s a leader in customer data, distribution, and compute capacity, three traits an AI winner needs. I agree. That’s why the Club restarted a position in Alphabet late last year. 6. Jefferies took a hatchet to a chunk of its software coverage, downgrading Workday , DocuSign , Monday.com , and Freshworks due to “more persistent” AI risk and negative sentiment. Analysts said they have a relative preference for software vendors willing to disrupt themselves, like Salesforce and Intuit . Salesforce is one of the five Club holdings reporting this week, as is Nvidia . 7. JPMorgan downgraded VF Corp. , the company behind Vans, The North Face, and Timberland, to sell from hold on lowered estimates. The analysts also trimmed their price target by $1 per share to $18. I don’t know about this call. VF has been turning, and I would not bet against CEO Bracken Darrell. 8. UBS upgraded BlackRock to buy from hold with a $1,280 price target. The analysts cited durable fee growth and margin expansion. We own it. Might be time to sell it. BlackRock had a good quarter, but maybe not good enough? 9. With Deere shares up more than 40% this year, Jefferies downgraded the farm-equipment giant to sell from hold. At this point, analysts said, the market has already priced in a full recovery in the agriculture cycle, and the stock’s earnings multiple, which is north of 34, is too expensive. 10. UBS upgraded CBRE Group to buy from hold after the commercial real estate firm’s stock was caught up in the AI disruption sell-off. Analysts aren’t too concerned that brokerage services will be disintermediated by AI or that white-collar job losses will depress office building values. CBRE’s vast data library is an asset in the AI era, they argued. Sign up for my Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free (See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday
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