Bitcoin’s recent price surge hasn’t stopped warnings of a steep drop. After rising 1.87% in 24 hours and 3.61% over the past week, Bitcoin trades near $109,192. According to Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, these gains could be setting up the biggest crash in years.
Crash Scenario Outlined
According to Brandt’s analysis, Bitcoin could plunge by as much as 75%. If that happens, today’s $109,800 price would fall to roughly $27,290. That level takes us back to the lows of early 2023. It would wipe out a huge chunk of value, reversing more than two years of gains. Few investors have models ready for such a steep slide.
Historical Parallels With 2022
Based on reports, Brandt sees a replay of the 2022 chart. Back then, Bitcoin hit tops of $65K in April 2021 and $69K in November 2021. It then fell sharply into the bear market, losing more than half its value.
This time around, the world’s top crypto formed highs above $108,000 in December 2024 and January 2025, then dropped under $100,000. After recovering near $112,000 last month, BTC may be gearing up for a similar breakdown.
Trigger Points To Watch
Key technical markers are flashing red. The 9-period EMA has just crossed below the 21-period EMA on the daily chart. In past sell-offs, that crossover marked the start of big downtrends.
Traders will want to see if Bitcoin closes below both EMAs for a week or more. A failure to reclaim the $108,000 level could be the final trigger before panic sets in.Market Reactions And Risks
Derivatives data is mixed but leans bearish. Trading volume jumped almost 30% to $100 billion, while open interest rose 1%. On Binance and OKX, the long/short ratios sit at about 0.5501 and 0.53, showing more shorts than longs.
When too many people bet on a drop, a squeeze can follow—if the crash doesn’t start soon. Still, the current crowding could backfire if Bitcoin holds above support.
Funds tied to Bitcoin have seen nearly $57 million in outflows over the past week. That may sound big, but it’s under 0.2% of the roughly $50 billion assets under management.
By contrast, Ethereum products attracted $295 million. So while some money is leaving Bitcoin, it’s shifting around inside crypto rather than fleeing entirely.
For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads. Will it break support and roll over toward the mid-$20,000s? Or will it shake off warnings and press higher? Either way, traders need to watch the $108,000 zone closely.
According to Brandt, a 75% drop could catch unprepared investors off guard. Managing risk and keeping orders tight seems more critical now than ever.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
