In the March 27, 2025 analysis, titled “Where is Bitcoin headed next? A Signal hidden in Real-Time Data,” Truflation highlights a recurring phenomenon: each time its inflation index experiences a pronounced downtrend that later pauses or reverses, Bitcoin has tended to surge soon afterward.
Where Is Bitcoin Headed Next?
Truflation’s research points to a backdrop shaped by the aftermath of COVID-19, when central banks worldwide slashed interest rates to almost zero and funneled liquidity into the economy. That period of easy money overlapped with Bitcoin’s run to all-time highs in 2021. By 2022 and 2023, however, persistent inflation took hold, prompting the US Federal Reserve to reverse course. Interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening became the primary tools for fighting price pressures, with the Federal Reserve explicitly aiming to bring consumer price inflation down to 2%.
According to the Truflation report, real-time inflation readings reached as low as 2% in June 2023. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, mirrored that pattern about a month and a half later, bottoming out at 3% in July 2023. Yet from mid-2023 onward, Truflation’s index did not simply keep dropping in a straight line. Instead, it oscillated between higher and lower bounds, demonstrating a cyclical pattern of disinflation that would then stabilize or reverse course. Truflation now believes that each of these cyclical “inflection points” closely correlates with subsequent upswings in Bitcoin’s price.
The report references four distinct periods from September 2023 to September 2024 when Truflation’s index trended downward and then either flattened or rebounded. In each of those cases, Bitcoin’s price rose soon after. Truflation suggests that a fifth such event may now be unfolding: the inflation index dropped steeply in early 2025, hitting around 1.30%—a level not seen in several months—before rebounding to 1.80%. This situation is reminiscent of previous disinflation troughs that, based on Truflation’s data, presaged a new wave of Bitcoin buying.
“When Truflation’s disinflation trend pauses or reverses, Bitcoin tends to rally shortly after. This pattern has repeated a few times already — and if history rhymes, it may be unfolding once again soon,’” the analysis states.
The underlying reason, Truflation explains, revolves around Bitcoin’s forward-looking nature and its sensitivity to changes in liquidity conditions. Strong disinflation usually prompts speculation that the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates and could soon turn dovish. While steep and unrelenting disinflation can trigger fears of recession, a slowdown or pause in that disinflation trend often reassures markets that the economy is not sliding into an economic downturn.
This “soft landing” scenario emboldens risk-on sentiment. Traders and investors who believe that inflation has been subdued enough to delay additional tightening—or to accelerate rate cuts—frequently channel their optimism into assets like Bitcoin.
The report acknowledges that no single piece of data, including Truflation’s own, holds absolute sway over an asset as complex and widely traded as Bitcoin. However, it emphasizes that real-time inflation expectations reverberate throughout global markets, influencing equities, commodities, and foreign exchange trading, in addition to crypto. By anticipating shifts in those expectations, some investors may find themselves ahead of the curve when official CPI reports and central bank pronouncements finally confirm or contradict the evolving trend.
“Truflation doesn’t influence Bitcoin in a vacuum. No single data source ever does. But inflation expectations ripple across a wide range of markets — from equities to commodities — and especially into bond yields and forex markets,” the analysis concludes.
At press time, BTC traded at $84,461.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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