- Japan bear flips & now bets on yen strength vs dollar, sterling & franc (sees +8% vs. CHF)
- Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time
- Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon)
- China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention
- Japan junior coalition leader backs food tax suspension, defends BOJ independence
- Singapore January exports rise 9.3% but miss expectations, uneven trade recovery continues
- Japan Q4 GDP rises just 0.2% annualised, misses forecasts & keeps BoJ on cautious path
- Japan’s economic growth in Q4 2025 misses estimates
- Investors turn optimistic on Chinese tech and housing policies into Lunar New Year
- Westpac: US resilience may delay final Fed rate cut to June 2026
- Weekend – US boards second Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Indian Ocean
- IMF says Australia achieving soft landing but warns on inflation risks & fiscal looseness
- New Zealand January card spending mixed messages
- New Zealand services sector expands in January but momentum eases
- Xi Jinping pushes domestic demand as China braces for rising global trade uncertainty
- Monday open indicative forex prices, 16 February 2026
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE and GDP, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, Flash PMIs, UK and Canada CPI
At a glance:
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Thin Asia trade as China’s Lunar New Year holiday shuts mainland markets.
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US markets will be closed for Presidents’ Day, with SIFMA recommending a full fixed-income close.
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NZ retail sales signal fragile demand ahead of this week’s RBNZ meeting.
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Japan Q4 GDP disappoints, rising just 0.2% annualised and 0.1% q/q.
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Yen softens post-GDP, with PM Takaichi set to meet BOJ Governor Ueda.
It was a subdued session across Asia on the first day of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, with mainland markets closed for the week and additional closures scheduled in Singapore and Hong Kong. Trading conditions were further thinned by the US Presidents’ Day holiday, with US equity markets shut and SIFMA recommending a full closure for US dollar fixed-income trading.
Ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy decision, where a hold is widely expected, data showed New Zealand retail sales remain soft, underscoring still-fragile household demand.
From Japan, fourth-quarter GDP figures disappointed. The economy expanded just 0.2% annualised, or 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, well below expectations. Private consumption and capital expenditure posted only modest gains, while exports fell 0.3%. Inflation pressures remain firm, keeping the Bank of Japan on a cautious normalisation path.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda later today (5pm Tokyo / 0800 GMT / 0300 US Eastern), a discussion markets will watch closely for policy signals. The yen weakened modestly following the soft GDP release.
Elsewhere in FX, major pairs were relatively steady amid the lighter liquidity backdrop.
Regional equities were largely consolidating recent gains, with Japan’s weaker data taking some momentum out of what had been a strong rally.
In corporate news, Japanese media reported that Starbucks Korea plans to open at least 100 new outlets this year.
