Bitcoin (BTC) enters the last week of June with geopolitics at a key crossroads and macro volatility to match. Where will BTC head next?
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Bitcoin traders are bracing for new lows as exchange order book liquidity shifts toward the $90,000 mark.
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The latest developments in the Middle East sparked knee-jerk reactions on crypto, oil and stock futures, but analysis notes that no “long-term conflict” is being priced in.
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A big week for the US Federal Reserve sees its “preferred” inflation gauge follow two days’ testimony to lawmakers by Chair Jerome Powell.
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Bitcoin dominance is getting ever closer to the typical long-term reversal mark in a potential “altseason” trigger.
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2025 percentage gains may take BTC/USD over $200,000, analysis predicts.
Liquidity points to new BTC price lows
Bitcoin dipped to its lowest levels since early May before ultimately sealing a weekly close at around $101,000.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows accelerating sell-side pressure running out of steam near $98,000, a key area of buyer interest as measured by exchange order book liquidity.
If this facilitated the relief rally, however, trader CrypNuevo warns that the next support retest may run deeper.
“Earlier, liquidity was sitting at $100k and $98k – and price moved directly there,” he noted in a thread on X while examining order book data.
“Now it’s showing lower, $95k. That’s concerning.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass nonetheless shows support staying in place higher up, in a range that coincides with the cost basis for investors holding BTC for six months or less.
“Since April, $BTC corrections have consistently found support at the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the cost basis of investors holding <155 days,” onchain analytics firm Glassnode observed this week.
Glassnode nonetheless flagged what it described as “rising pressure on newer investors,” with just 3% of the new investor cohort sitting on unrealized gains.
Other market participants were more wary of market weakness, among them popular trader Roman, who has consistently forecast new local lows against the backdrop of a waning bull market.
BTC/USD, he told X followers on Monday, is due a trip to $92,000 next.
Scenario on $BTC 1D now invalid.
Failed to make bull divs, lost support, volume beginning to increase to the downside.
Expecting 92-93 soon. pic.twitter.com/FewMBMQufn
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) June 23, 2025
Markets shrug off “long-term conflict” in Middle East
Bitcoin was first to react to the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict this weekend, which now directly involves the US.
However, late weekend volatility was noticeably short-lived, reminiscent of earlier phases in the two-week conflict.
Just as BTC/USD quickly set a low and rebounded, so too did oil markets and US stock futures soon taper any reactive moves.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter thus had grounds for optimism over what could come next.
“Over the last 72 hours, the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites, Russia said countries are ready to supply Iran with nukes, and Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, stock market futures are down a mere -0.5% at the open and oil prices are up less than +2.5%,” it wrote in an X analysis.
“This is NOT a market that is pricing-in a long-term conflict.”
Kobeissi said that markets were “still expecting a short-lived war,” with price action cutting through myriad panic and false narratives.
“This market arguably has the highest amount of noise ever seen,” it concluded.
“Between tariffs, wars, the Fed, recession worries, and inflation data, it’s endless noise.”
Pressure mounts on Fed’s Powell in PCE week
Beyond the Middle East, there is more to look out for in the coming days regarding macroeconomic volatility.
The Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is due for release on June 27.
The data will follow initial jobless claims and the second Q2 GDP revision the day prior.
All these come at a crucial time for the Fed, which has come under increasing pressure over interest rates from US President Donald Trump.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, recently called a “stupid person” by Trump, is due to testify to the House Financial Services Committee on June 24-25.
“Uncertainty over the impact of tariffs is putting the Federal Reserve in a tough spot,” trading firm Mosaic Asset summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Referring to the Fed’s decision to hold rates at current levels on Wednesday, Mosaic Asset noted the disparity between them and inflation, which has declined this year and formed the basis for much of Trump’s anti-Powell rhetoric.
“Last week, the central bank elected to keep the short-term fed funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25% – 4.50%,” it added.
“That means the U.S. policy rate is the highest above other developed economies (chart below), and nearly double the rate of consumer inflation.”
Bitcoin dominance surge enters final innings
While Bitcoin is feeling the pressure from macro uncertainty, it is altcoins that are leading the losses for crypto investors.
The combined altcoin market cap, excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies, fell to $202.16 billion on Sunday — its lowest since April 18.
Altcoins have consistently struggled this year and last as Bitcoin hits new all-time highs, leaving even the leader, Ether (ETH), far behind.
In his latest update on Bitcoin’s dominance of the overall crypto market cap, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that historical patterns may repeat and support an altcoin rebound sooner rather than later.
Uploading a chart to X, Rekt Capital reiterated that in previous cycles, Bitcoin dominance reached around 71% and then reversed, leaving the door open for altcoins to catch up.
“If history repeats, the real Altseason everybody is waiting for would begin once Bitcoin Dominance rejects from 71% (red),” he commented.
A further post acknowledged that the turning point may not come at exactly 71%, but lower, potentially hastening the beginning of the long-sought “altseason.”
“Majority of the Bitcoin Dominance Macro Uptrend has already taken place. And just like in every BTCDOM cycle, it got close to 71%,” he noted.
BTC still aims for $200,000 in 2025
Bitcoin market participants broadly agree that the current bull market has room to run, but analysis is now seeking to filter out “micro signals” to confirm market strength.
Related: Traders watch XRP, ETH, SOL and HYPE now that Bitcoin trades below $100K
This week, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant leveraged the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend (BYPT) tool to declare that 2025 is likely the last bullish year of the current cycle.
“It reveals a recurring cycle of three years of growth followed by one of consolidation, matching Bitcoin’s four-year halving rhythm,” contributor Carmelo Aleman explained in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.
BYPT is a simple method of assessing BTC price performance in a given year over the traditional four-year price cycle.
Aleman now sees 120% gains in 2025 as a result of historical tendencies, giving BTC/USD a cycle top of over $200,000.
“The Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend is a tool that allows us to filter out daily market noise and reconnect with Bitcoin’s true cyclical nature,” he concluded.
“It reminds us that beyond micro metrics and short-term candles, Bitcoin adheres to a structural rhythm that repeats with striking consistency: three years of expansion followed by one of compression.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
