Fundamental
Overview
The latest move lower in
gold came overnight as a US Federal Court blocked Trump’s tariffs from going
into effect. This lifted risk assets and the US Dollar as the first reaction
was to expect even stronger growth ahead, but Trump has many ways to appeal the
decision, so it’s not the end.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed
easing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations could
weigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data and hawkish Fed comments.
For now, we are stuck in a
big consolidation as the market awaits the next key catalyst to trigger a
breakout and a more sustained trend.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to pull back towards the major upward trendline after
the rejection from the downward trendline. Overall, we remain stuck in a
consolidation as we await a breakout on either side. The buyers will likely continue
to lean on the upward trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to extend the correction into the 2955
level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we broke below the most recent swing low at 3278 tonight and the price
came back to retest the level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step
in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major
upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher
to start targeting the major downward trendline next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on
this timeframe. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on
the trendline to target new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher
to increase the bullish bets into the major downward trendline. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and tomorrow,
we conclude the week with the US PCE price index and the final UMich Consumer
Sentiment report.
Watch the video below
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