Fundamental
Overview
Gold remains mostly
rangebound but with a bullish tilt given that in the bigger picture real yields
will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a repricing in rate cuts
expectations could weigh on it in the short term.
That repricing hasn’t taken
place as the data continues to favour at least two rate cuts for the Fed this
year. In fact, yesterday we got a lower than expected US
CPI report, which saw the market erasing some of the slightly more hawkish
bets after the US NFP.
Late in the afternoon, we’ve
also got some Middle East tensions that boosted the precious metal on safe
haven flows but it seems like the news of a potential Israel attack against
Iran was exaggerated. Nevertheless, it’s worth to keep an eye on that front.
Today, we have the US PPI
and the US Jobless Claims data that could impact the price of gold. Dovish
figures should keep on supporting the market into new highs, while hawkish data
might weigh on it in the short term.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold pulled back to retest the broken downward trendline and bounced as the buyers continue
to target the 3438 level. The sellers might want to wait for the price to come
into that level to position for a drop into the major upward trendline with a
better risk to reward setup.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to
lean on it with a defined risk below the trendline to position for the rally
into the 3438 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
lower to pile in for a drop into the 3245 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the current setup but there’s not much else we can add here as
the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while
the sellers will look for a break lower to target a bigger pullback to the
downside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and US
PPI. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment report.
Watch the video below
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