Gold Futures Analysis, Fed Decides Today!

Gold Futures Analysis – May 7, 2025

What Is Gold About to Do Ahead of (or After) the Federal Reserve Decision?

Current Price: $3,397.5

Key Focus: Tight-range activity near $3,400 as markets await the Fed’s interest rate announcement

Overview: Gold Futures at a Crossroads

Gold futures are stabilizing near $3,397 as traders brace for today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. With the announcement expected at 2:00 p.m. ET and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, this analysis helps you prepare for potential volatility.

What is gold about to do? That’s the big question on every trader’s mind. While the broader trend remains bullish, today’s market behavior is largely influenced by caution, tight volume clusters, and key levels holding firm. The tradeCompass methodology can help guide your decision-making by mapping the important bullish and bearish thresholds — keeping you open to both outcomes.

Key Intraday Price Levels to Watch

• Developing VWAP: $3,394.4

• Current Volume Point of Control (POC): $3,400

• Yesterday’s VWAP & POC: $3,390

• Current Value Area: $3,381.5 to $3,407

• Important Overhead Level: $3,422.8 (Value Area Low from April 22, all-time high day)

• Key Lower Support Level: $3,366.2 (Yesterday’s VAL)

• Critical Bearish Threshold: $3,350

tradeCompass Thresholds & Scenarios

Upside Breakout Threshold: $3,422.8

This marks the Value Area Low from April 22, when gold hit its all-time high. A sustained break above, such as two 30-minute candle closes above this level, may indicate a bullish breakout.

• Upside Targets:

  • $3,440 – Partial profit area

  • $3,491 – Full target (Value Area High of April 22)

Tip: Avoid stop-buy orders one tick above this level. Confirmation is key. You can use 30-minute candle closes, ATR filters, or your own preferred method to reduce fakeout risk.

Downside Breakdown Threshold: $3,350

Although $3,366.2 is the value area low from yesterday, deeper confirmation may come only below $3,350, a semi-round number and confluence point with multiple April value areas.

• Downside Targets:

  • $3,305 – Near May 5 VWAP

  • $3,287 – May 5 VAL

  • $3,251 – Above April 15–16 value zones

Reminder: Even if the broader trend favors bulls, always be prepared for post-Fed reversals. These levels offer a structured way to assess price action.

Conclusion: Stay Neutral, Stay Prepared

This Gold Futures analysis does not predict direction. Instead, it helps you stay nimble as you trade around key levels. The tradeCompass guide provides clear reference points for traders managing risk in both directions.

As gold dances around $3,400, don’t expect a decisive breakout until after the Fed speaks. When it happens, watch how price interacts with the thresholds outlined above. Let the market reveal its direction — and be ready to act accordingly.

Disclaimer:

This is not financial advice. This analysis is provided for decision support only as part of the tradeCompass methodology. Always trade at your own risk.