For reference: The most-recent FOMC statement and key projections

The May 7 FOMC statement for reference ahead of today’s release:

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent
indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a
solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in
recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation
remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at
the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the
economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to
the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of
higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target
range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In
considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the
target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully
assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities
and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is
strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning
inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee
will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for
the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the
stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could
impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s
assessments will take into account a wide range of information,
including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and
inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair;
John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan
M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel
Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J.
Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

Key median projections:

• Dec 2025 Fed funds 3.9%
• Dec 2026 Fed funds 3.4%
• Dec 2027 Fed funds 3.1%
• Dec unemployment 4.4%
• Dec PCE inflation 2.7%