Ethereum has been grinding against the $1,850 level for over a week, unable to break free due to a lack of momentum. Multiple technical barriers converge here, explaining the sustained struggle.
Over the past several trading sessions, Ethereum’s (ETH) price has repeatedly tested, and failed to clear, the $1,850 area. This isn’t mere indecision: it’s the result of several key technical factors aligning to create formidable resistance. Without a surge in buying volume, ETH looks poised to remain range-bound or potentially pull back to lower supports. .
Key technical points
- Converging Resistance: VWAP SR, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, daily supply zone, and Point of Control all cluster around $1,850.
- Volume Drought: Recent attempts to push higher have lacked significant volume, undermining breakout efforts.
- Channel Context: ETH remains inside its longer-term price channel, approaching its upper boundary without confirmation of strength.
Detailed analysis
Ethereum’s VWAP SR (Volume-Weighted Average Price Support/Resistance) is a dynamic level that often flips roles. As ETH approaches $1,850, VWAP has shifted from support to resistance, reflecting the average price paid by traders and highlighting that many are underwater above this level.
Simultaneously, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the last major swing low to high, sits nearly on top of VWAP, reinforcing this area as a rejection zone.
Layered on top of this is a daily supply zone, where sellers previously absorbed buying pressure and drove price lower. Adding to the congestion is the Point of Control from the recent volume profile, marking the price at which the most trading occurred. When price meets the POC at resistance, buyers and sellers clash decisively, and in this case, sellers are winning.
Perhaps most telling is the lack of volume on any of the rally attempts. Breakouts require participation, traders must feel compelled to buy in size. But ETH’s recent tests of $1,850 have been characterized by thin order books and muted buying interest. Without above-average volume, candles remain small and price fails to close decisively above resistance, signaling exhaustion rather than conviction.
What to expect in the coming price action
As long as Ethereum remains below $1,850, the path of least resistance favors a pullback, potentially toward the lower boundary of its channel or significant supports like $1,700 or the 200-day moving average. Traders eyeing longs at current levels would be taking high risk against stacked resistance.
To invalidate this bearish outlook, ETH must deliver a clear breakout: look for a close above $1,850 on heavy volume and a sustained move beyond the channel’s upper trendline.
That combination would likely attract momentum traders and test higher targets, such as $1,950 and $2,000. Until then, caution is advised, and traders should manage risk tightly around this critical zone.
