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As the crypto market wobbles under macroeconomic turbulence, Ethereum plunges into an unprecedented zone since March 2020. A historic signal awakens, but do investors still dare to believe it?
Crypto ETH below the realized price: the alchemy of indicators reminiscent of 2020
The numbers speak for themselves: at $1,380, Ethereum has just crossed a psychological threshold that has been absent from the radars since March 2020. A plunge that has not occurred since the Covid crisis, a period when crypto ETH had finally started a spectacular rally.
But today, the comparison stops there. Geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflation, and fears of a global recession have replaced health uncertainties. The result? A crypto market paralyzed by fear, even where blue chips like ETH are wobbling.
Yet, a rare on-chain indicator comes to disturb predictions: the realized price of crypto ETH, that is, the average purchase prices of tokens in circulation, is now above its market value ($2,000 against $1,380). A phenomenon that, in the past, has systematically coincided with accumulation phases before spectacular rebounds.
Carl Runefelt, a respected analyst, also reminds us that March 2020 offered the same scenario. At the time, crypto ETH had dropped from $283 to $109… only to multiply its value by 15 in one year.
But the story does not stop at a simple repetition. Unlike 2020, Ethereum is now navigating in a mature ecosystem: smart contracts, DeFi, NFTs. Its decline therefore questions the real resilience of use cases in the face of macro.
Institutional investors, once seduced by these innovations, now seem to favor safe-haven assets. An exodus that undermines the long-term bullish narrative.
$1,500, the cursed threshold: Ethereum on a tightrope without a net
The brutal break of crypto ETH at $1,500 acted like an electric shock. This level, long perceived as a solid symbolic floor, has crumbled without real resistance. Now, ETH navigates in a technical no man’s land, without clear support to stop its decline.
As crypto ETH struggles, bitcoin benefits from an unexpected boost from the White House. The surprise announcement by Donald Trump, suspending tariffs for 90 days with several countries while increasing pressure on China, caused a real tsunami in the markets.
Bitcoin thus crossed the spectacular threshold of $82,000 in a matter of minutes, briefly pulling Ethereum along to $1,689 before a quick return around $1,592.
Attempts at a rebound consistently hit a harsh reality: every rise immediately becomes a selling opportunity. This self-fulfilling dynamic pushes the price into a downward spiral that seems difficult to reverse in the short term.
The psychology of the markets exacerbates this delicate situation. An old stock market adage ironically reminds us: “The price goes up by the stairs, and down by the elevator”.
To regain control, crypto ETH must imperatively reconquer $1,850, a threshold that now constitutes a major resistance. However, with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) stuck in chronic oversold territory and anemic volumes, the prospect of a lasting rebound appears limited. Worse still, a break of the critical threshold of $1,380 could accelerate ETH towards a dangerous zone of $1,000.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
