Key takeaways:
-
97% of ETH put options will expire worthless if ETH holds above $2,600.
-
A bullish ETH price outcome could be limited by macroeconomic factors and trading strategies that cap Ether gains.
On May 30, $2.4 billion in Ether ETHUSD options will expire—an event that could support ETH’s attempt to break above the $2,700 mark for the first time in over three months. Despite the recent gains, Ether is down 21% in 2025, while the broader cryptocurrency market has seen a 5% increase.
Ether bulls are motivated to keep ETH above $2,600 ahead of the monthly expiry. However, weak network activity on Ethereum suggests that the upside potential may be limited.
Analysts believe Ether’s underperformance stems from rising competition among blockchains focused on decentralized applications. Still, ETH holds a key advantage as the only altcoin with a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) offering in the United States. These ETFs attracted $287 million in net inflows between May 19 and May 27, reflecting increased interest from institutional investors.
Even as demand for Ether-based investment products grows, deposits and onchain activity on the Ethereum network have declined. This trend is especially troubling as rivals like Solana, BNB Chain, and Tron continue to gain market share. Ethereum no longer ranks among the top ten protocols in terms of fees, creating a supply imbalance that contributes to inflationary pressure on ETH.
Sell (put) options ill-prepared for ETH prices above $2,600
Even though the $1.3 billion in call (buy) options dominate the May 30 expiry, that doesn’t necessarily imply that those traders will reinvest the proceeds in new bullish positions. Many option strategies involve multiple maturities and are structured in ways that don’t benefit from ETH rising above specific thresholds. Additionally, traders may hedge their exposure through futures markets.
The $1.1 billion in put (sell) options were clearly caught off guard, as 97% were set at $2,600 or lower. These contracts will expire worthless if ETH holds above that level at 8:00 am UTC on May 30. While this imbalance is unusual, a similar outcome could affect the overly optimistic call options with strike prices at $2,800 and above if ETH remains near current levels.
Below are four likely scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances and do not account for complex strategies.
-
Between $2,300 and $2,500: $420 million in calls (buy) vs. $220 million in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $200 million.
-
Between $2,500 and $2,600: $500 million calls vs. $130 million puts, favoring calls by $370 million.
-
Between $2,600 and $2,700: $590 million calls vs. $35 million puts, favoring calls by $555 million.
-
Between $2,700 and $2,900: $780 million calls vs. $10 million puts, favoring calls by $770 million.
Bulls are strongly incentivized to push ETH past $2,700, yet the broader context may override those efforts. Given the strong correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500, macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings are likely to remain the primary forces shaping investor risk appetite—and ultimately, ETH’s price at the time of the monthly options expiry.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
