ES Futures Analysis: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution

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📈 ES Futures Analysis for Today: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution

Prediction Score: +4 (Mild Bullish Bias)

ES Futures are making a cautious move higher after bouncing from support near 5492.25, but order flow shows buyers encountering resistance around the VWAP zone. With Delta SL (Delta Since Low) showing buyer defense, momentum is on the bulls’ side—but absorption at VWAP is keeping a full breakout in check.

🔍 Key Price Levels to Watch

🧠 What Order Flow Tells Us

1. Buyer Defense Confirmed

   • Delta SL surged at 16:33 (932), 16:40 (2027), and again at 17:04 (1320), showing buyers stepping in and defending intraday lows.

   • These spikes in Delta SL are often early signs of bullish reversals building energy.

2. Cumulative Delta Rising

   • From 6055 to 10031, net delta supports an upward bias.

   • However, the 16:57 bar had 32K trades with only +5 delta — that’s a red flag for liquidity absorption or hidden selling at VWAP.

3. Mixed Momentum Near VWAP

🧭 TradeCompass Outlook

This is a decision point market — not yet a breakout, not yet a rejection. Let the price tip its hand.

✅ If Price Holds Above 5510.75–5515

• Look for confirmation from strong delta change and a fresh Delta SL spike (1500+).

• Target upside toward 5522.25, potentially even higher.

• This would represent a clean VWAP breakout supported by buyer strength.

❌ If Price Rejects and Falls Below 5506

This would signal that VWAP is still acting as a ceiling, not a launchpad.

⚠️ Clarification for Traders and Investors

This analysis gives you a real-time compass, not a prediction in a vacuum. If price is hovering just below a bullish threshold without strong delta, that’s a short setup. If it breaks above with strength, the opposite is true. This dual-path framework is built to help you react intelligently to unfolding price behavior — not just plan ahead blindly.

🔁 Use this structure for partial profit-taking and entry zone refinement. The best setups emerge when price tells you its next move — the map just helps you listen better.

📌 Trade at your own risk. This compass is designed as a decision support tool, not financial advice.

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