The market pause comes at a key moment as President Donald Trump pushes forward economic and trade decisions, and analysts keep a close watch on how labor data could shape expectations for Fed rate cuts in the coming months.
What can we expect from the June jobs report?
All eyes are on the June nonfarm payrolls data, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists are predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3%, up from 4.0% previously.
Any signs of labor market weakness could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates sooner, especially amid broader economic uncertainties. The data will also serve as a final marker before the market closes for the Independence Day holiday.
ETF Performance (July 3, 2025 intraday snapshot)
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Trading at $620.45, up $2.73 (+0.44%).
- Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): At $550.80, up $3.83 (+0.70%).
- SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA): At $444.71, down $0.20 (−0.045%).
Could a weak jobs report speed up Fed interest rate cuts?
That’s the big question on investors’ minds. With the labor market already showing subtle signs of cooling, another softer-than-expected jobs report could push the Fed toward easing rates more aggressively.
Traders have already priced in the possibility of at least two rate cuts in the second half of 2025. If the jobs number disappoints, those expectations may rise further. The Fed’s next policy meeting will be closely influenced by this jobs data, and any shift in their tone could move markets significantly.
Top Movers in Big Tech
- Apple (AAPL): +2.2%
- Nvidia (NVDA): +2.6%
- Tesla (TSLA): +5.0%
➤ Despite a 13.5% year-over-year drop in Q2 vehicle deliveries, Tesla stock surged on optimism about its upcoming AI and energy announcements.
Bond Market & Rates
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: Holding at 4.29%, slightly higher as investors wait for labor data.
How is President Trump influencing the markets right now?
President Trump’s recent economic stance is shaping market sentiment in a big way. His ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and growing speculation that he may announce a replacement has increased talk of faster monetary easing.
At the same time, Trump’s successful trade deal with Vietnam has sparked optimism, with investors hopeful for more international agreements that could soften the blow of the July 9 tariff deadline. The possibility of reduced tariffs and friendlier trade terms could provide a cushion to the economy in the face of slowing job growth.
Key Market Drivers
- June Jobs Report (due July 5): Expectations point to 110,000 jobs added, down from 139,000 in May.
- ADP Employment Data: Showed a 33,000 job loss in June, the first private sector decline since March 2023 — heightening expectations of a weak government jobs report.
- Federal Reserve Outlook: A soft jobs print could increase bets for interest rate cuts later this year, potentially boosting markets further.
- Tech Rally: Big Tech continues to fuel the market rally, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors.
Is the tech sector showing signs of recovery?
Yes, and it’s directly tied to easing tensions between the US and China. The Biden-era export curbs on advanced tech have now been relaxed under President Trump, with restrictions on chip design software lifted. This move sent shares of Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) higher in premarket trading on Thursday.
Investors welcomed the decision as a sign of improving US-China relations, particularly in the high-stakes semiconductor industry. This shift could help stabilize the tech sector, which has been under pressure from supply chain issues and trade uncertainty.
What’s the latest on Trump’s tax and spending bill?
In another major development, Trump’s massive tax and spending bill passed a key procedural vote in the House of Representatives on Thursday. House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed that the administration now has enough support to push the bill through by Friday, July 4—Trump’s stated deadline.
The bill includes sweeping tax cuts and expanded spending in infrastructure and defense, and its approval would represent a major legislative win for the President heading into the second half of the year. Markets are watching closely, as the package could stimulate economic growth and influence Fed policy.
Futures Overview – July 3, 2025
- Dow Jones futures: Up around 0.1%, gaining about 45 points, trading near 44,821
- S&P 500 futures: Up approximately 0.06%, gaining about 4 points, hovering around 6,278–6,279
- Nasdaq‑100 futures: Up nearly 0.08%, adding around 18–19 points, trading near 22,861–22,862
These small moves reflect caution as investors await the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET, expected to show a gain of about 110,000 jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.3%.
What’s driving market futures today?
- New record highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Wednesday, lifting sentiment across the board.
- Labor market data: Anticipation around the June jobs report is high, as it could signal slower hiring. Analysts expect fewer job gains compared to May and a three-year-high in unemployment.
- Global trade signals: Positive momentum is coming from a new US-Vietnam trade agreement and the recent removal of tech export restrictions to China, which helped boost semiconductor software stocks.
- Legislative developments: The House is preparing to vote on a large tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump, which includes major cuts and infrastructure spending.
Holiday trading schedule
- Early close today: US stock markets will shut early at 1 p.m. ET due to the Independence Day holiday.
- Closed Friday: Markets will remain fully closed tomorrow, July 4.
- Fed policy in focus: Depending on the strength of the jobs data, the report could influence the timing and scale of potential Fed interest rate cuts later this year. Traders are currently pricing in increased odds of rate reductions if labor weakness persists.
What does the holiday schedule look like for markets?
Because of the Fourth of July holiday, US stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and remain closed all day Friday. Investors are using the shorter week to rebalance portfolios and brace for the next set of macroeconomic signals, starting with Thursday’s jobs report.
The US stock market today is holding steady, but beneath the surface, there’s a lot at stake. The June jobs report, Trump’s economic policies, and global trade shifts are all converging to shape the next moves in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. With rate cuts, tariffs, and tax bills on the line, this is a moment of high anticipation—and traders are watching every number closely.
FAQs:
Q1: What time is the June jobs report released and how does it affect the US stock market today?
A: It’s released at 8:30 a.m. ET and can move stocks if jobs data shows weakness, hinting at Fed rate cuts.
Q2: Why are Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 futures flat ahead of the holiday?
A: Investors are waiting for the June jobs report and watching Trump’s economic and trade decisions before making moves.
