Headlines:
- How have interest rates expectations changed after the first tariff letters?
- EU reportedly closes in on temporary “framework” agreement with the US
- EU will be firm, working closely with US to reach an agreement – von der Leyen
- EU commission says aims to reach a trade deal with US before August 1
- German Chancellor Merz: Cautiously optimistic on EU trade deal with the US
- China calls out EU to readjust its attitude on trade relations
- ECB’s de Guindos: Let’s hope the exchange rate stabilizes
- ECB’s Lane: Data dependence also extends to incoming data outside the monetary domain
- BoE’s Bailey: Steepening in yield curves for bonds is not particularly UK-focused
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 4 July +9.4% vs +2.7% prior
Markets:
- USD leads, CAD lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
- US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.413%
- Gold down 0.5% to $3,284.91
- WTI crude up 0.2% to $68.47
- Bitcoin up 0.4% to $109,127
It was a quiet session in European trading as markets continue to wait on more trade developments and tariff news. That said, European stocks are cheering on the likelihood of a makeshift deal between the EU and US some time later this week. It will be one similar to that of the UK, though with just slightly worse terms.
The whole point is to extend trade negotiations further, likely beyond 1 August, with the baseline tariffs fixed at 10%. Trump is reported to want added 17% tariffs on EU agrifood, so we’ll have to see what the final details will be.
The DAX is up over 1% on the day, briefly clipping fresh record highs, as European indices climb higher. The CAC 40 is also up over 1% and the gains are also matched by Spanish and Italian stocks too. This comes amid a calmer mood seen in US futures as well, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.2% on the day.
In FX, things were rather dead but the dollar is keeping steadier across the board. For the most part, we saw narrow ranges but the greenback is starting to pick up some light bids ahead of US trading.
EUR/USD is now dipping just below 1.1700, where large option expiries had held the floor for the most part during the session. USD/JPY had also climbed above 147.00 earlier in the day but is now up just 0.1% to 146.75.
Besides that, USD/CAD is up 0.3% to just above 1.3700 with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6517 currently.
In other markets, copper continues to hold at fresh record highs after the spike yesterday following Trump’s tariffs announcement. Front-month futures are still up around 10% this week to $5.48 currently but well off the peak of around $5.80 from overnight trading.
Elsewhere, gold is down and poised for a third weekly drop in four weeks with traders still digesting tariff developments for the most part. In the bigger picture though, price is very much ranging in and around the $3,300 mark since the end of May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
