A swirl of bullish proclamations is ricocheting across X as macro‑minded influencers argue that a fresh expansion in “Global M2” money supply will trigger a near‑instant rally in Bitcoin—yet a veteran market analyst is warning that the data underpinning those calls is little more than a mirage.
The latest wave of optimism was set in motion when Real Vision co‑founder Raoul Pal published an updated overlay of Bitcoin versus Global M2—an aggregate of every major country’s broad money supply converted to US‑dollar terms—and told followers, “It is time, give or take a few days.”
Other accounts also shared similar charts. One asserted that Bitcoin “continues to mirror Global M2 with its classic 12‑week lag,” predicting “aggressive upside likely kicks off next week… $74.5 K looks like it was the bottom,” while other self-proclaimed crypto guru promised a new all‑time high “within weeks.”
Bitcoin Vs. M2: Is A Price Explosion Really Coming?
The viral charts drew immediate fire from TXMC (@TXMCtrades). In a lengthy thread he argued that computing a daily or even weekly Global M2 series is “goofy and frankly a scam” because “the United States is only updating M2 on a weekly basis and all others are monthly.” He continued:
“You are looking at basically 30 out of 31 days of FX fluctuations with a static once‑monthly global aggregate multiplied behind it… China, USA, and Japan have even updated into March. The rest are still on February values during a time when the dollar has been tanking hard… You’re looking at an M2‑weighted inverse dollar exchange rate 95% of the time. Be better at math!”
TXMC noted that China now accounts for roughly 46 percent of the putative Global M2 and is “the ONLY major country whose broad money supply is above its post‑covid peak in dollar terms,” a dynamic that “goes straight up” because Beijing is “trying to ease out of an ongoing multi‑year debt deflation.” By contrast, US M2 “is below its 2022 peak… and growing at the slowest pace since Bitcoin’s birth excluding 2022‑24 when it was negative y/y.”
Beyond the cadence mismatch, he blasted the practice of applying “random #‑week offsets” to force a visual correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin. “These charts are over‑fitted junk using extremely recent history as a thesis for why they should correlate,” he said, adding that while assets can be “directionally sympathetic on a monthly basis… the main critiques relate to presenting a daily/weekly metric using monthly data… AND using over‑fitted offsets of that data to try to forecast the future for a content audience.”
The broadside prompted a rebuttal from YouTuber Colin Talks Crypto (@ColinTCrypto), who claimed that key central banks do in fact provide higher‑frequency figures. “China M2 updates daily—not monthly,” he wrote, attaching what he said were current charts through April 17 2025. “Japan’s M2 also updates daily… Since about half of your post relies on ‘China data being slow and outdated’… your post’s main argument weakens greatly at this point.”
TXMC swiftly countered that assertion, insisting “there is no daily M2” and that any high‑frequency series is merely “a projection of a 1‑2 month old value using real‑time FX values.” The sudden April “pop” in Global M2, he maintained, is nothing more than the dollar’s sharp slide translated mechanically into larger dollar‑denominated money stocks. “Because Global M2 doesn’t actually exist, it is an abstraction of money that lives solely in a chart formula,” he wrote. “It treats all broad aggregates around the world as the same pool of eligible capital and introduces a heap of noise via foreign exchange rates… this is how the sausage is actually made and it’s not sexy.”
At press time, BTC traded at $84,750.
