Canada trade balance Canada trade balance for March (C$) -0.51B vs -1.56B estimate

• Prior -$1.52B
• Trade Balance for March C$-0.51B vs C$-1.56B est.
• Exports C$69.90 billion versus C$70.04B last month
• Imports C$70.40 billion versus C$71.44B last month

The modest decline is still a drag on the Canadian growth, but it was still better than expectations and something closer to 0 is better for US/Canada relations.

PM Carney will be meeting with Pres. Trump today. I wonder what his mood will be on the first visit since it being elected? Some details for the meeting:

• Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6% in March, the second monthly decline after January’s record high.

• Despite recent drops, exports to the U.S. were still up 2.5% compared to November 2024.

• Imports from the U.S. declined 2.9% in March.

• Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed from $10.8B in February to $8.4B in March.

Trump may not like that imports FROM the US declined -2.9%. That trend may be the new normal as trade is shifted away from the US.

Details of exports:

• Total exports edged down 0.2% in March after a 5.4% drop in February.

• Exports remain 10.2% higher year-over-year despite back-to-back monthly declines.

• US tariffs on Canadian goods began in March and weighed on performance.

• Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6%, but were nearly offset by a 24.8% surge in exports to other countries.

• In real (volume) terms, exports actually rose 1.8% in March.

• 6 of 11 product categories saw declines; price effects contributed to the overall drop.

Key product breakdown:

• Consumer goods: ↓ 4.2%, with broad declines across product types.

• Energy products: ↓ 2.2%

• Motor vehicles and parts: ↑ 7.7%

  • Passenger cars/light trucks: ↑ 11.8%, rebounding from February’s 14.5% drop.

  • Up 22.5% since November 2024, ahead of new U.S. auto tariffs in April.

• Other gains:

  • Farm, fishing & intermediate food products: ↑ 3.1%

  • Forestry, building & packaging materials: ↑ 3.5%

  • Metal ores & non-metallic minerals: ↑ 6.5%

Details of imports: Some problems with the data.

• Total imports fell 1.5% in March, ending a streak of five consecutive monthly increases.

• Largest declines:

• In real (volume) terms, imports edged down 0.1%.

• Import statistics are based on CBSA administrative data and typically require minimal estimation.

• Due to data delays from the CARM digital initiative, estimated values were used for many product categories from November 2024 to March 2025.

• Users should interpret March import data with caution, as significant revisions are expected in future updates.