Bull Run Not Happening? Dogecoin (DOGE) Aims at $0.20, But There’s a Catch

A golden cross may happen in the coming weeks as Bitcoin is heating up once more and a significant technical event is subtly preparing behind the scenes. BTC is currently trading at about $95000. It recently surged above important resistance levels thanks to a surge of new liquidity inflows and strong momentum. In a rare alignment that indicates a significant trend shift is about to occur, the bullish move propelled Bitcoin well above its 50-day EMA ($85,000) and 100-day EMA ($88,000), with the 200-day EMA already lower at approximately $86,000. 

The 100 EMA is typically expected to be between the 50 and the 200, serving as a smoother indicator of midterm momentum prior to a golden cross, which occurs when the 50 EMA crosses above the 200 EMA. But as of right now, the 100 EMA remains above the 50 and the 200, indicating a distorted structure brought on by the sharp decline and subsequent recovery of Bitcoin in early 2025.

Even though Bitcoin has quickly recovered, the moving averages are still lagging behind price movement. It indicates distortion caused by volatility, as opposed to a steady organic trend formation. Assuming Bitcoin can hold above $90,000, the golden cross should formally occur in the coming weeks when the 50 EMA cleanly crosses above the 100 EMA. 

If it does, technical traders will start to pile in as it officially signals the start of a full bullish trend. In fact, it may be a good thing that the volume is still respectable but not euphoric because there is still potential for actual trend-following flows after the crossover confirms. 

Ethereum too passive

Ethereum has been making an effort to awaken alongside the rest of the cryptocurrency market, but judging by its price action, it is evident that ETH is at a standstill and is not displaying the strength required for a real bull run. Ethereum is battling the 50-day EMA at its current price of $1,820, but thus far, the resistance appears to be unbreakable. Each attempt to gain traction has been feeble and quickly waned.

ETH lacks the strength to break through the 50 EMA’s wall-like behavior in the absence of significant volume. Here, volume is the key component that is lacking. Ethereum’s volume is incredibly low despite Bitcoin and other majors attracting respectable liquidity. Bulls are simply not very interested at the moment. In the absence of a significant increase in buying pressure, ETH is probably going to continue bouncing under resistance, or worse, roll over. 

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Key levels to keep an eye on are $1,730, which is currently the 50 EMA, and a crucial support zone, $1,790-$1,820, which represents the current price congestion. Ethereum will face its next real test at $2,170, where the 100 EMA and the main horizontal resistance converge if it can manage to push and hold above $1,850. 

On top of that, the 200 EMA close to $2,500 would be relevant, but that is currently wishful thinking. Ethereum could potentially fall back toward $1,600 or even $1,500 if it were to lose the $1,730 level. Because there is currently no momentum, that risk is increasing daily. In summary Ethereum appears worn out. It is too soon to talk about a bull run unless there is a significant increase in volume and a clear break above the 50 EMA. It is currently just fighting to stay afloat.

Dogecoin climbs up

Dogecoin is attempting once more to climb higher, with the $0.20 mark being the next obvious target. DOGE has demonstrated strong short-term momentum while trading around $0.182. It has bounced off the $0.17 support zone and is currently holding above the 50 EMA, which is at about $0.17. It appears to be a clear setup for a move higher on paper. The truth, however, is somewhat more somber. 

Despite DOGE’s stated goal of $0.20, that level does not appear to be assured at this time. The first issue is the overwhelming amount of resistance up ahead. Both the 200 and 100 EMAs are stacked above the current price, with the 200 EMA higher near $0.22 and the 100 EMA at about $0.20. At $0.20, there is not only psychological resistance but also strong technical resistance. In addition, Dogecoin’s wider problem is a serious lack of market presence. 

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DOGE is not attracting the same level of interest or liquidity as it once did. It will be difficult for DOGE to get through this crucial phase without a significant catalyst — and no, a few sporadic tweets will not cut it anymore — because volume is at best mediocre. If DOGE is able to break above $0.20 and hold, $0.22-$0.23 would be the next real test.

But for now it is more realistic to see if it can even withstand a $0.17 retest without malfunctioning. If that fails, DOGE might drop back to $0.15 or even lower. In summary, Dogecoin is currently outperforming its peers even though its goal is $0.20. It faces an uphill battle that it might not win in the absence of greater volume and wider market support.