Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin
is trading above $101.5K as Asia begins its trading day, shrugging off fresh tariff uncertainties from the Trump administration.
However, the real story, according to Semir Gabeljic, director of capital formation at Pythagoras Investments, is that traders continue to be laser-focused on a bull market throughout the remainder of the year, with a high degree of confidence that BTC will reach $120,000, buoyed by persistent corporate buying and declining volatility.
“The uncertainty from unexpected tariff increases by the Trump administration is causing some volatility,” Gabeljic said in an email to CoinDesk. “However, bitcoin remains relatively strong, with lower volatility compared to other digital assets.”
Institutional bullishness remains resilient, Gabeljic highlighted, noting that traders on Polymarket are “pricing in a 69% probability that Bitcoin will hit at least $120,000 by year-end.”
FlowDesk, a Paris-based market maker, echoed this optimistic outlook despite recent subdued market conditions in a recent note on Telegram.
“The market is clearly coiling, waiting to break out of a narrow band just below all-time highs,” FlowDesk wrote in their market update note. “Significant repositioning and rotation from Bitcoin towards altcoins has occurred, though BTC’s underlying strength remains evident.”
FlowDesk also noted cautious market behavior, as indicated by a modest decline in BTC funding rates on major exchanges like Binance, which suggests a reduction in leverage. However, on-chain borrowing activity has seen renewed vigor, potentially signaling anticipation of an imminent market breakout.
Further bolstering the bullish BTC narrative is the continued accumulation by corporate treasuries.
Listed companies now hold approximately 809,100 BTC, worth nearly $85 billion, nearly doubling the amount held a year ago, driven by favorable regulatory shifts and accounting changes that allow for the recognition of bitcoin gains.
“The expectation of a continued strong bitcoin remains,” said Gabeljic.
News Roundup
$TRUMP Token Drops 9% as Musk-Trump Feud, Family Crypto Clash Spook Investors
The presidential-themed $TRUMP memecoin fell 9.3% on Thursday, significantly underperforming the broader crypto market as tracked by the CoinDesk 20, an index covering the largest digital assets, which declined 5%.
The token’s sharp downturn followed a heated public exchange between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, sparked by disagreements over Trump’s proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill” and its impact on national debt, CoinDesk previously reported.
The argument escalated quickly, with Musk threatening to ground SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and Trump countering by suggesting the government might sever contracts with Musk-led enterprises.
Further pressure on the memecoin came after its newly launched crypto wallet, created in partnership with NFT marketplace Magic Eden, went offline following a cease-and-desist from another Trump-affiliated crypto venture.
Trump’s sons publicly distanced themselves from the memecoin project, highlighting their involvement in a separate Ethereum-based DeFi initiative, World Liberty Financial. The internal branding clash added another layer of uncertainty, amplifying investor concerns and weighing heavily on the token’s price.
CRCL Soars on First Day of Trading
Circle (CRCL) shares soared 167% on their first day of trading, closing at $83 after pricing its IPO at $31, briefly hitting an intraday peak of $104. The surge recalls Coinbase’s volatile 2021 IPO, which similarly started strong but rapidly lost momentum, raising caution among investors about long-term stability.
The jump in Circle’s stock price came amid a modest uptick in stablecoin market activity. Trading volume for Circle’s USDC rose 22% over the past 24 hours, while market leader Tether’s USDT saw volume increase by 13%. Despite the bullish debut, the coming weeks will test Circle’s staying power as investors assess whether enthusiasm around stablecoin infrastructure translates into sustained stock performance.
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Philippines Firm Linked to $200M ‘Pig Butchering’ Crypto Scams
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Philippines-based tech firm Funnull Technology Inc. and its administrator, Liu Lizhi, for facilitating “pig butchering” crypto scams responsible for over $200 million in losses from U.S. victims, CoinDesk previously reported.
OFAC accused Funnull Technology of providing digital infrastructure, such as IP addresses and domains, used by cybercriminals to host hundreds of thousands of scam websites designed to deceive victims into fraudulent crypto investments.
“Pig butchering” refers to elaborate crypto scams that groom victims over time, often beginning through unsolicited messages and fake romantic overtures, before convincing them to invest significant sums. With these sanctions, OFAC prohibits any U.S. persons from engaging in transactions with Funnull or Liu, aiming to disrupt the networks enabling these extensive cyber scams and to safeguard investors in the digital asset ecosystem.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% to test the $100K support level before rebounding above $101.5K, as high-volume selling and major exchange outflows signaled growing market stress amid weakening retail activity.
- ETH: Ethereum dropped 4% after repeatedly failing to surpass the critical $2,640 resistance level, despite increased institutional buying and notable whale accumulation of over $285 million in ETH.
- Gold: Gold edged higher to $3,363.58 in early Asian trading amid weak U.S. economic data and signs of easing U.S.-China tensions, as the Gold-Silver Ratio surged past 100—a rare signal historically linked to outsized silver returns.
- Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.14%, after a positive 90-minute call between U.S. President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping set the stage for resumed trade negotiations.
- S&P 500: U.S. stock futures flatlined as a public feud between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk added uncertainty to market sentiment.
