By all accounts, June was one of the worst months in recent memory for crypto investors. Bitcoin (BTC +0.13%) fell 18% in June, briefly dipping below the $60,000 price level. Moreover, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached record levels as investors headed for the exits.
But I’m still loading up on Bitcoin this summer. Here’s why I’m taking a contrarian approach.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
I’m more convinced than ever of the validity of the Bitcoin four-year cycle. If there’s one defining feature of Bitcoin, it’s that it typically trades in four-year cycles of boom and bust. In large part, this is due to the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years.
Image source: Getty Images.
And that’s why Bitcoin’s current downturn is nothing to worry about. After three stellar years, Bitcoin is delivering a real clunker of a year, right on schedule.
All you have to do is examine the historical evidence, and it’s easy to see the Bitcoin four-year cycle at work. Bitcoin suffered monster declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022. So it was perhaps inevitable that a major downturn was coming in 2026.
Potential catalysts for Bitcoin
Admittedly, Bitcoin’s decline in June — its worst month since 2022 — was alarming. It came amid new investor doubts about the Bitcoin treasury company model, and new concerns that investors were abandoning crypto in favor of artificial intelligence (AI) and other fast-growing segments of the economy.
Today’s Change
(0.13%) $80.97
Current Price
$62949.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.3T
Day’s Range
$62462.00 – $63857.00
52wk Range
$57945.16 – $126079.89
Volume
20.9B
But there are several bright spots on the horizon. One of these is newfound momentum for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. After President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating it last March, it largely went nowhere. But this year, top congressional leaders are touting the merits of expanding this reserve.
Secondly, all the hand-wringing over Bitcoin ETF outflows in June may be an overreaction. According to Coinbase Global, institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin. At the same time, sovereign wealth funds are adding Bitcoin.
All told, Coinbase says 40 nations are at various stages of stockpiling Bitcoin. They may not always be buying Bitcoin via an ETF, though, so the numbers aren’t showing up as ETF inflows.
Bitcoin to $100,000 this year?
There’s still a chance Bitcoin could regain the $100,000 price level by the end of 2026. According to traders on the Kalshi prediction market, Bitcoin has a 14% chance of doing so.
A big reason for that, no doubt, is Bitcoin’s tendency to perform best in the final months of the year. Historically, Q4 has been the best quarter of the year for Bitcoin. During Q4, Bitcoin has gained an average of 77%.
So now is no time to throw in the towel on Bitcoin. If anything, now is a unique opportunity to buy Bitcoin at heavily discounted prices. If you wait until the end of the year, it could be too late.
Source: Original Article
