00:00 Jared Blikre
Bitcoin’s rally has resumed in recent days nearing those old January all-time highs. So what is next for the cryptocurrency? Let’s take a look at seasonality. I’m Jared Blikre, host of Stocks and Translation. Well, first our seasonality definition here. This is a predictable and recurring change in data that tends to happen at the same time every year. And the emphasis is tends to. Uh it’s not a guarantee and it counts for about one-third of price action if everything goes well. But two-thirds of the time life can intervene. And we saw that this year in April, when stocks, which were supposed to be going up, they went down because of tariff realities. And the same is true for Bitcoin. So let’s take a look at this Bitcoin seasonality map. And first to back this up, um I just want to show you, I’m using the 2018 to 2024 median and averages. Why not go all the way back to the beginning, 2010, 2011. Uh that’s because in the early days of crypto, and especially Bitcoin, things were a lot wilder. And this seasonality chart would just be off the charts. So I think this is a more realistic view because in late 2017, we got Bitcoin futures for the first time. This kind of marked the beginning of the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies. And so that’s why I’m using 2018 to modern times. So back to the chart here. Let me just dig you dig through what’s going on. This white line is what has happened so far this year. And you can see we took a pretty big dip there while seasonality would have said we’re supposed to rally into early May throughout the uh late April. But we did still get a rally. It just went to down to lower levels than we would have thought if seasonality had held. So there’s no guarantee that seasonality’s going to hold going forward, but let me just outline where these potential turning points might be because we are at one right now. So right now, we have a little bit of a headwind into mid-June, and then things tend to turn around into about mid-August. And then in late September, we get a nice rally according to history, and that lasts into about mid-November. Then we come down a little bit, and then maybe a little bit of a Santa Claus rally into the end of the year, raining tokens on everybody. Uh but that’s just the tendencies. So let me go to now a price chart of Bitcoin and show you what’s actually been happening this year in a little bit more detail because we have an interesting potential rounding bottom, and this could turn into a cup and handle. Uh what happens is when price approaches a prior resistance level, and in this case, we’re talking about the all-time highs from earlier this year in January. A lot of times things stall out. And you have people looking to get out because they were late buyers. They’re finally back at break even. And so price stalls out. Then it comes down a little bit, and you get that handle. And then things tend to turn up. And you see that zigzag higher once again. That could be the case. And so I would be looking for a resumption of the rally maybe in a little bit of over a month. Now, anything can intervene in the meantime. Trump could come out with new pro crypto policies. That could shift the tides, and we could see a breakout here, but this is just a historical tendency. Also want to show you what has been happening in some of the other tokens, which got really depressed. Ethereum took a nasty two-thirds hit. Um cut more than in half this year. And you can see only recently did it finally break out of this trend line. But over the last month, it is up about 60%. And speaking of this time frame, in the last month, I’m going to put all of these individual tokens here and sort by performance. So you can see we have a lot of these outperforming some of these smaller ones from Monero to Dogecoin to Solana. All of these participating in a nice rally over the last month. And what I’ve observed historically is in when you have broad participation in crypto, it speaks as to the strength of the entire group. So I think the potential for a crypto rally is in place. We just need some seasonality to align, and maybe in the coming weeks to a month, we’ll finally see another turn up in price.
