- Bitcoin stumbled after US forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites.
- Traders stacked over $1.35 billion in downside bets for this week.
- Polymarket bettors aren’t confident in new highs in the near term.
Traders are bracing for Bitcoin’s price to plummet after the US bombed Iran.
Investors have stacked up bearish bets worth $1.4 billion on crypto derivatives platform Deribit that Bitcoin will drop further this week, with the biggest cluster of contracts sitting between the $95,000 and $100,000 strikes.
Punters on Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting platform, tell a similar story, with traders turning pessimistic about Bitcoin reclaiming all-time highs before the end of July. In less than a week, the chances have plunged from nearly 70% to just 10%.
That lines up with how other analysts see things unfolding in the near term.
“Iran closing down the Strait of Hormuz is the next step in the escalation,” said Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital. “As long as this keeps happening, there’s no sign that risk-on assets like Bitcoin will reverse.”
The bearishness signals that the crypto industry’s wobble will continue after geopolitical tensions rippled through markets over the weekend after US forces bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, rattling Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
US President Donald Trump’s decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs and cruise missiles against Iran on Sunday has rocked a global economy already facing severe uncertainty over his trade wars.
Bitcoin fell from just under $103,000 to around $98,500 following the strikes, before rebounding back above $102,000 on Monday as traders weighed the fallout and potential for further escalation, including closing down key oil routes.
US stock futures initially declined as investors weighted retaliation scenarios and the risk to global energy supplies, with the spectre of even higher oil prices haunting global markets.
Zoom out
Some industry stakeholders note that this isn’t Bitcoin’s first brush with geopolitical turmoil. Its status as a so-called safe haven asset gets rehashed nearly every time tensions flare, though history shows its response is far from predictable.
Still, some analysts remain confident.
“Do you hear that? It’s the sound of the money printers revving up to do their patriotic duty,” BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted on X. “This weakness shall pass, and Bitcoin will leave no doubt as to its safe haven status.
Others are choosing to zoom out to focus on the broader trend.
“Make of this what you will,” ETFStore President Nate Geraci wrote on X, “Since election day, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF is up 49%, gold is up 22%, and the S&P 500 has gained 4%.”
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin has lost 1.4% in value over the past 24 hours and is trading at $101,200.
- Ethereum is down 1% in the same period to $2,250.
What we’re reading
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at [email protected]
