Bitcoin jumping above a key technical threshold would open a path to a much larger rally ahead, according to a market strategist.
In a note to clients last week, Ed Campbell of Rosenberg Research said the next big resistance level for crypto is $114,000.
Bitcoin hovered around $107,800 on Monday afternoon. Should the token rise another 6% to clear the $114,000 mark, it could spark a fresh rally of as much as 25% to $143,000.
“While momentum may fade later this summer, a breakout now (or soon) would reinforce the bullish macro setup and could extend Bitcoin’s leadership well into the second half of the year,” Campbell wrote.
The note pointed to a handful of bullish catalysts the firm believes will act as tailwinds to bitcoin’s price going forward.
1. An ongoing rally from the last bitcoin halving
Bitcoin’s price has historically rallied after a halving event, when the rewards for bitcoin miners are slashed in half. The idea is to make it harder for new bitcoins to be mined and making the token more scarce.
The last bitcoin halving was in April 2024 with the next one expected in 2028.
Yahoo Finance, Blockchain.com, Rosenberg Research
2. Concerns around the US dollar
Investors are more concerned about storing their wealth in dollar assets like US government bonds than they were in the past, making bitcoin an attractive alternative to some investors.
The US Dollar Index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies and reflects the level of demand for the dollar, is down 10.5% for the year.
Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve, St. Louis Fed, Rosenberg Research
“Bitcoin is increasingly used to preserve wealth and ensure mobility,” Campbell and Rosenberg said, pointing to spikes in on-chain activity during recent crises.
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3. Large flows into spot bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin’s adoption by institutions has boosted its credibility and attracted more funds to the crypto, another major catalyst for bitcoin’s price.
Spot bitcoin ETFs, which were first launched in 2024, are now taking in more than $45 billion in cumulative monthly flows, Rosenberg Research’s analysis found.
Farside Investors, Rosenberg Research
4. Rate cuts
Markets are also anticipating several rate cuts by the end of the year. Lower interest rates are generally bullish for risk assets, including crypto. Markets broadly have rallied on the prospects that the Fed could soon loosen monetary policy, with stocks making new highs in the last week amid more dovish talk from central bankers.
Markets see the first rate cut coming in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
5. Regulatory changes
The regulatory environment is growing more friendly to crypto assets since President Donald Trump, who branded himself as the “crypto president” on the campaign trail, returned to the White House.
The note points to several pro-crypto officials Trump has appointed during his term, as well as actions that support bitcoin’s price, like banning a US central bank digital currency and the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve. The recent passage of the Genius Act in Congress aimed at creating a framework for stablecoins was the latest bullish policy development.
“The removal of regulatory overhang could unlock significant capital and reinforce Bitcoin’s positioning as a strategic reserve asset,” Campbell said.
Bitcoin is up 15% this year, beating the S&P 500’s 5% year-to-date gain.
