Bitcoin on Track to Hit $500K as Government Entities Increase MSTR Holdings: Standard Chartered

Bitcoin’s price remains on track to hit half a million dollars before Donald Trump’s current term ends after government entities increased their indirect exposure to Bitcoin in the first quarter, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, 

Whether it was South Korea’s National Pension Service, the Swiss National Bank, or U.S. state retirement funds, government entities’ recent holdings of Strategy—which owns around 576,000 Bitcoin—“was very encouraging,” Kendrick wrote in a note on Tuesday. That group also included Swedish pension funds, a state-owned bank in France, and the Saudi Central Bank.

In the first quarter, 12 government entities increased their exposure to Strategy, holding 31,000 Bitcoin worth of Strategy shares, he added.

Although investors can gain exposure to Bitcoin through spot exchange-traded funds that were approved in the U.S. last year, government entities’ increased Strategy holdings reflect “widening structural demand” for Bitcoin and Strategy’s continued use as a Bitcoin proxy, Kendrick wrote.

“We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he added.

Analysts at the British multinational bank believe that Bitcoin’s price will reach $500,000 before the end of  Trump’s second term ends in early 2029. That target is premised on the understanding that Trump’s administration, through the repeal of SAB 121 and initiatives like his strategic Bitcoin reserve, will improve investors’ access to Bitcoin, while encouraging demand.

Each quarter, institutional investment managers with over $100 million worth of assets under management are required to reveal their holdings through a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Known as a 13F, Kendrick argued that these filings are the best way to test “our thesis that BTC will attract new institutional buyer types as the market matures.”

Within the U.S., state retirement funds for California, New York, North Carolina, and Kentucky upped their Strategy holdings by the equivalent of 1,000 Bitcoin, Kendrick said. Each share in Strategy equates to 0.0018 Bitcoin per diluted share, per Strategy Tracker.

Sovereigns’ exposure to Bitcoin through spot ETFs “was disappointing at first glance,” Kendrick noted, pointing to an overall decline in their direct holdings. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board, which held the equivalent of 3,400 Bitcoin through ETFs, sold all its holdings. 

Mubadala Investment Company, the sovereign wealth fund for Abu Dhabi’s government, validated Standard Chartered’s thesis when it started stockpiling Bitcoin last year. In the first quarter, its Bitcoin exposure increased to 5,000 Bitcoin, from 4,700 Bitcoin, not long ago.

Edited by James Rubin