Will history repeat one more time? Bitcoin investors hope it does.
On Jan. 20, Bitcoin (BTC 0.35%) hit a new all-time high of $109,000, and many investors thought that the world’s most popular cryptocurrency was about to skyrocket higher. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case, with Bitcoin now down 22% from its peak.
The good news is that Bitcoin has a long track record of recovering from similar market declines. If history is any guide, then Bitcoin could be ready to soar in value later in 2025.
The Bitcoin cycle
The first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that it tends to follow very distinct four-year cycles. The key to the recurring nature of these four-year cycles is the Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years. Typically, there are four different stages to these cycles: an accumulation phase, a growth phase, a bubble phase, and a crash phase.
Historically, the halving event has provided the go-ahead signal for Bitcoin to skyrocket in value, as it transitions from the growth phase to the bubble phase. This bubble phase can last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and is the time period when Bitcoin makes its biggest gains.
Historical evidence from previous Bitcoin cycles
Take, for example, the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull market cycle. The Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020. And that, not surprisingly, helped to kick off an 18-month rally that led to Bitcoin skyrocketing in price to a then all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
That’s impressive, but the bull market rally that everyone is talking about right now is the 2015-2017 market cycle. This was kicked off by the Bitcoin halving in July 2016, and lasted nearly 18 months.
The current Bitcoin market cycle appears to be repeating this older market cycle quite precisely. In other words, if you were to compare Bitcoin price charts from these two different market cycles, they would look remarkably similar.
And I mean, remarkably similar. Earlier in the year, there was a 92% statistical correlation between the two market cycles. That correlation has since dipped to 91%, but it is still extraordinarily high. As a result, many crypto investors are now highly confident that Bitcoin is going to continue following a trajectory similar to the one it took in 2017, when it eventually rose from about $1,000 to a price of $20,000. That means Bitcoin could be ready to go parabolic any moment now.
Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView
As can be seen in the above chart, Bitcoin’s ascent to the $20,000 level from July 2016 to December 2017 was not a straight-upward trajectory. There were some pullbacks along the way, and there was a long period of time when it looked like a breakout would not happen. That should provide some peace of mind to crypto investors worried about Bitcoin’s current 22% pullback.
And it should help to explain why so many investors were so excited about the Bitcoin halving that took place in April 2024. If you buy into the logic of historical cycles repeating themselves, then that should have been the go-ahead signal for a Bitcoin rally lasting into 2025.
Will history repeat itself?
But here’s the thing: Some analysts are suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market is already over.
What we are seeing now, they say, is not some kind of “consolidation” before a massive breakout — we are seeing the beginning of the end of a short-lived Bitcoin rally. Remember, the bubble phase of the cycle can last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and it has now been 12 months since the April 2024 halving.
Image source: Getty Images.
In response, some analysts are suggesting that maybe the bubble phase didn’t start with the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Maybe it actually started with the election of President Donald Trump in November 2024. If you count 18 months from the election, that would suggest that a Bitcoin rally could extend into 2026.
And, if the White House can continue to find new ways to support the crypto market, the Bitcoin rally might even extend until 2027. Some analysts have even suggested that Trump has broken the four-year cycle once and for all, and it’s just rainbows and unicorns from here on out, as Bitcoin shifts into an ultra-bullish “super cycle.”
Bitcoin advice from Mark Twain
Just be careful about relying too much on Bitcoin’s prior history for future guidance about where it’s headed next. Historical performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no immutable law of the universe that says Bitcoin must continue to follow four-year cycles — despite the immutable halving schedule.
Mark Twain famously suggested, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Of course, he wasn’t talking about Bitcoin or the crypto market, but this advice can be helpful in thinking about the current market situation. If history can rhyme just one more time, then Bitcoin could be headed for new all-time highs in 2025.
