The crypto market is set to see $2.58 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, a development that could trigger short-term price volatility and impact traders’ profitability.
Of this total, Bitcoin (BTC) options account for $2.18 billion, while Ethereum (ETH) options represent $396.16 million.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Holders Brace For Volatility
According to data on Deribit, 26,457 Bitcoin options will expire today, significantly lower than the first quarter (Q1) closer, where 139,260 BTC contracts went bust last week. The options contracts due for expiry today have a put-to-call ratio 1.25 and a maximum pain point of $84,000.
The put-to-call ratio indicates a higher volume of puts (sales) relative to calls (purchases), indicating a bearish sentiment. More traders or investors are betting on or protecting against a potential market drop.
On the other hand, 221,303 Ethereum options will also expire today, down from 1,068,519 on the last Friday of March. With a put-to-call ratio of 1.41 and a max pain point of $1,850, the expirations could influence ETH’s short-term price movement.
As the options contracts near expiration at 8:00 UTC today, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are expected to approach their respective maximum pain points. According to BeInCrypto data, BTC was trading at $82,895 as of this writing, whereas ETH was exchanging hands for $1,790.
This suggests that prices might rise as smart money aims to move them toward the “max pain” level. Based on the Max Pain theory, options prices tend to gravitate toward strike prices where the highest number of contracts, both calls and puts, expire worthless.
Nevertheless, price pressure on BTC and ETH will likely ease after 08:00 UTC on Friday when Deribit settles the contracts. However, the sheer scale of these expirations could still fuel heightened volatility in the crypto markets.
“Where do you see the market going next? Deribit posed.
Elsewhere, analysts at Greeks.live explain the current market sentiment, highlighting a bearish outlook. This adds credence to why more traders are betting on or protecting against a potential market drop.
Bearish Sentiment Grips Markets
In a post on X (Twitter), Greeks.live reported a predominantly bearish sentiment in the options market. This follows US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement.
BeInCrypto reported that the new tariffs constituted a 10% blanket rate and 25% on autos. While this fell short of market expectations, it was still perceived as a negative development, sparking widespread concern among traders.
According to the analysts, options flow reflected this pessimism, with heavy put buying dominating trades.
“Trump’s tariffs are viewed as severe trade disruption… The market’s initial positive reaction with a price spike to $88 was seen as gambling/short covering, followed by a sharp reversal as reality set in about economic impacts. Options flow remains heavily bearish, with traders noting significant put buying, including “700 79k puts for end of April,” wrote Greeks.live analysts.
Traders snapping up 700 $79,000 puts for the end of April signals expectations of a sustained downturn. According to the analysts, the consensus among traders points to continued volatility, with a potential “bad close” below $83,000 today, Friday, April 4. Such an action would erase the earlier pump entirely.
Meanwhile, many traders are adopting bearish strategies, favoring short calls or put calendars. Shorting calls is reportedly deemed the most effective approach in the current climate.
Therefore, while the market’s initial reaction to Trump’s tariffs was a mix of hope and reality, the reversal reflects the broader economic fallout from Trump’s policies. As traders brace for choppy conditions, the bearish outlook in options trading paints a cautious picture for the days ahead.
Global supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty remain at the forefront of market concerns.
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