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Last Friday, bitcoin nearly touched $111,000, triggering a wave of euphoria in the markets. A historic first that did not go unnoticed by the media spotlight. But since then, volatility has returned, bringing the price back below $110,000. The star crypto now enters a critical zone. In the sights: the expiration of $13.8 billion in options scheduled for May 31. For the bulls, every level gained could turn into a jackpot. But the battle remains uncertain.
In Brief
- The bulls are betting on $4.8 billion in gains if bitcoin breaks above $110,000.
- 95% of put options will be worthless if bitcoin exceeds $109,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.9 billion in net inflows in just three days.
Bitcoin Options: A Strategic Duel at $13.8 Billion
The bitcoin news: the market has structured itself around two camps. The bulls hope to keep bitcoin above $110,000 to maximize their positions. Call options on this zone total $4.8 billion. On the other side, the bears see their hopes dwindling: 95% of puts are placed below $109,000. If the price remains high, their impact will be minimal.
At Deribit, the most used strategies in May are “bull call spreads” and “short calls”. They allow benefiting from a measured rise in bitcoin while limiting losses in case of a reversal. This positioning reflects the current caution of market participants.
The decisive factor could come from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Between May 20 and 22, $1.9 billion was injected into them. This massive inflow supports the bullish sentiment. But nothing is decided: bears could still try to manipulate futures contracts to limit damage. Because as the expiration approaches, every dollar counts.
Technical Tensions and “Pinning Effect”: Understanding Bitcoin’s Front Lines
On the charts, the $110,000 and $112,000 levels are becoming explosive zones. The Twitter account @DarkPurpleHazeX describes:
There seem to be significant short positions at $112,000… but they are losing ground.
This level concentrates selling pressure. If it yields, a short squeeze could push bitcoin to new highs.
But technical analysis does not explain everything. The famous “pinning effect” comes into play. It pushes prices to stabilize around levels with high open interest. For this month, this corridor seems to be between $105,000 and $110,000, a potential trap for both camps.
The $79 billion in open interest on futures contracts amplifies this tension. A breakout in either direction could create a domino effect. In this context, strategies evolve minute by minute. Investors watch the slightest signals: volumes, tweets, and macroeconomic announcements.
Towards a High-Tension Outcome
The end of the month promises to be electric. The figures speak for themselves and reflect maximum market pressure. Bulls can cash in up to $4.8 billion on call options if bitcoin exceeds $110,000. On their side, bears have few weapons left: 95% of their puts expire below $109,000, rendering them useless if the price stays high.
The inflow of $1.9 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs between May 20 and 22 illustrates institutional investors’ confidence. This support is no coincidence.
On futures contracts, $79 billion in open positions raise the stakes.
- $4.8 billion in calls in the 110–114K zone;
- 95% of puts expire below $109,000;
- $1.9 billion injected into ETFs in three days;
- $79 billion in open interest on futures.
In this context, the slightest technical or geopolitical spark could tip everything over.
Recently, Donald Trump reignited tensions by restarting the trade war with the EU — a statement that immediately unsettled the markets. Result: Europe and bitcoin waver. This harsh reminder underlines how sensitive the crypto ecosystem remains to external shocks. As option expiration approaches, nerves will be tested.
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La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
