LITTLETON, Colorado, March 28 (Reuters) – The year is
still young, but Asia has already built up a considerable lead
over several European countries and the United States in terms
of energy transition progress so far in 2025.
Large Asian nations including China, India, South Korea and
Japan all reduced fossil fuel use and boosted clean power output
by more than their international peers in early 2025, according
to data from energy think tank Ember.
Indeed, while most of Asia made cuts to fossil fuel use for
electricity production in January from the same month in 2024,
the U.S. and Europe have both expanded fossil fuel-fired
generation, thereby reversing their transition momentum.
Asian nations also lifted clean power production by more
than most of Europe’s top economies, highlighting an important
power generation trend that stands to impact annual emission
reduction efforts if sustained for the full year.
EARLY PROGRESS
In terms of cuts to fossil fuel electricity generation,
South Korea stands out with a 15% reduction in January from the
same month in 2024. Record nuclear power output has allowed
utilities to cut back on coal and gas use there.
Vietnam, China, India and Asia as a whole also made
year-over-year cuts to fossil fuel-fired generation in January,
which is typically one of the peak demand months for power in
Asia.
India was the leader among clean power boosters in January
over January 2024, registering a 26% rise in clean electricity
production. Near-record output from solar, nuclear and bioenergy
plants helped lift India’s clean power total.
Several other Asian nations have also registered strong
clean power generation momentum in early 2025, with China, South
Korea, Japan and Asia as a whole all notching up 16% or greater
year-on-year increases in clean electricity output in January.
SLOW START
While Asian nations are making clear progress against energy
transition goals, climate trackers have had less to cheer about
from the generation trends in Europe and the United States.
A combination of weak wind power output across Europe and
strong electricity demand growth in North America has triggered
a rise in utility use of fossil fuels on both continents this
year.
Power producers across Europe collectively raised fossil
fuel-fired electricity production by 5% in January from the same
month a year ago, with the Netherlands and Poland among the
stand-outs with even larger fossil fuel use increases.
A major driver of that higher burn rate of gas and coal was
a widespread reduction in clean power generation, especially
from wind farms.
Cumulative wind electricity generation in Europe during
January and February was down 16% year from the same months in
2024.
That clean power shortfall forced the region’s utilities to
crank output from natural gas and coal plants, resulting in the
backsliding in energy transition momentum so far this year.
In the United States, strong growth in overall electricity
consumption has spurred utilities to crank output from all
generation assets.
U.S. clean electricity production in January plus February
was up 6% from the same months in 2024, thanks mainly to higher
solar capacity and generation.
However, U.S. utilities have also boosted output from fossil
fuels, with coal-fired electricity production during the first
two months of 2025 up by 20% from the same period in 2024.
U.S. natural gas-fired output was down by around 1% from the
start of 2024, due mainly to a rise in natural gas prices which
have climbed by around 80% from year-ago levels.
Going forward, continued strength in U.S. gas prices is
likely to sustain the elevated use of coal for power, despite
the higher emissions toll that comes with it.
U.S. power firms generate around 950,000 metric tons of CO2
per unit of electricity from coal plants, and around 540,000
tons of CO2 per unit of electricity from gas plants, Ember data
shows.
And the peak demand period in the U.S. still lies ahead,
with use of power-hungry air conditioners the highest during
summer.
In Europe, winter is the peak demand period, so the arrival
of spring should reduce overall power needs and provide
utilities with the scope to cut back on fossil fuel use.
That said, as wind is Europe’s third-largest source of clean
power after nuclear and hydro, the sub-par wind output levels
seen so far this year may mean utilities may need to keep gas
and coal output higher for longer.
That fossil-heavy reliance contrasts with power generation
trends in Asia, where use of coal and gas plants tends to hit
their annual lows during the northern hemisphere spring.
If that trend plays out again while Europe and the U.S.
sustain their current fossil fuel usage levels, Asia could widen
its current gap in terms of energy transition progress and
cement its place as the global driver of clean power momentum.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market
analyst for Reuters.
(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Jamie Freed)
