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Technical indicators alongside macro-economic factors are prompting analysts to predict further downward momentum for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
What Happened: In a podcast on Thursday, prominen analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that the S&P 500’s decline could extend into April, resembling past market downturns that have had ripple effects across both equities and crypto.
While March has historically marked a bottoming point during corrections—such as the financial crisis and pandemic crash—Cowen notes that sometimes the downturn extends into April.
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One key date is mid-April, when the next inflation print is released. With new tariffs in focus, investors are watching closely for potential market reactions.
Glassnode data has flagged a death cross forming in Bitcoin’s on-chain data, with BTC’s 30-day volume-weighted price crossing below the 180-day. Historically, such signals have preceded 3–6 months of downside.
Why It Matters: Cowen also pointed to a critical S&P 500 metric: the S&P 500 divided by the money supply, which currently sits at levels similar to past major market rejections, including 1998, the financial crisis, the pre-pandemic high and 2021/2023 resistance levels.
The 1998 rejection led to a 20–23% market drop. Cowen believes the current 10% decline could extend further to 20%, echoing that historical precedent.
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He cautions against panic, reminding investors that not all 20% declines trigger recessions. In 1998, the S&P 500 saw a significant rally after its correction, which could signal a similar setup in 2025.
What’s Next: Cowen suggests watching for a potential market bottom in that first or second week of April, with an 11-week correction timeline possibly aligning with the next FOMC meeting in May.
He also sees a potential death cross forming on the S&P 500, which historically has been followed by a short-term rally before any further declines.
If the pattern holds, both Bitcoin and equities could be in for a counter-trend bounce before the market’s next major move.
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