Two days after Liberation Day is not looking good for the markets. The USD fell yesterday with the CHF and the JPY leading the way. The dollar is mixed today as the flow of funds start to go out of AUD and NZD as China retaliates with their own 34% rise in tariffs. The AUDUSD is down -3.54%. The NZDUSD is down -2.58% in a morning snapshot.
On the downside the USD is down another 1.06% vs the CHF and -0.66% vs the JPY. For the EURUSD it is up 0.17% (lower USD), while the GBPUSD is down -0.63% (higher USD).
So price action is all over the place to start the day. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. What levels are in play, what targets and risk levels should you watch and why.
By the way, the US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?
- Consensus estimate +135K
- Estimate range +50K to +185K
- February was +151K
- Private consensus +135K versus +151K prior
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
- Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%
- Prior participation rate 62.4%
- Prior underemployment U6 8.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.1 prior
Numbers released so far this month:
- ADP report +155K versus +84K prior
- ISM services employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prior
- Challenger job cuts 275.2k vs 172.0k prior
- Philly employment +19.7 vs +5.3 prior
- Empire employment -4.1 vs -3.6 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 225K vs 219K prior
The strongest argument for a good number in March is that February jobs (particularly in leisure & hospitality) were depressed by poor weather. Canada will also release their jobs report at the bottom of the hour. I’m not sure that the market really cares about these reports given the changes over the last few days.
“By the way Part II”, Fed’s Powell will have the opportunity to add his two-cents in regard to the economics of the tariffs. Yesterday Fed Jefferson kinda kicked the can down the road, not being overly reactionary to what was a rout in the markets. Who is that looking over Powell’s shoulder.
The US stocks are bouncing modestly from an hour or so ago but are still down sharply in pre-market trading. A snaphot of the market currently shows:
- Dow industrial average -1284 points. Yesterday, the index fell -1679 points or -3.98%
- S&P index is down -176 points. Yesterday the index fell -274.45 points part -4.84%.
- NASDAQ index is trading down -629 points. Yesterday the index fell -1050.44 points or -5.97%.
The declines in the S&P and the NASDAQ indices were the largest since the 2020 pandemic selloff.
In the US debt market yields are continuing their slide:
- 2- year yield 3.543%, -18 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.595% -16.3 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.910% -14.5 basis points.
- 30 year yield 4.364% -12.0 basis points
Crude oil continues its tumble on concerns of global slowdown. The price is down $5.26 or -7.86% $61.69.
The price of gold is moving to the downside despite the risk sentiment and any flight to safety advantages of gold. The price is down $17.79 or -0.57% at $3097.
Bitcoin is amazingly stable at $-853 or -1.03% at $82,284.
