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I’m not a perma-bear. I’m not a doomster – and yes, I’ve been calling bitcoin down for a long time now.
And it’s been falling.
I called it up in 2017, 2021, and 2025 – it’s all here on Forbes if you want to check the calls. There I am on the record: a bitcoin bull on the way up and a bear on the way back down again in each case.
I’m not a bitcoin maxi; I’m a bitcoin vari. Buy it when it’s cheap, sell it when it’s expensive. I’m not cherry-picking my calls. I could say bitcoin hasn’t risen since 2024, but I won’t. I could say you would have outperformed gold and the S&P if you had bought in 2023, but I won’t say that either, because accurate hindsight has no value. I’m in the approximate foresight game, and sorry, I still think it’s going down some more.
Here is the chart, which is just another close variant of what I’ve said before. The map to the destination just gets a little clearer as we approach where I expect the bottom to be, which is between $30,000 and $40,000.
It’s not fate, because things can intervene, but it is a high-probability outcome.
The bitcoin chart – are we approaching the bottom?
Credit: ANewFN.com
There are a lot of headwinds out there for bitcoin, not the least of them being its use by the adversaries of the U.S. Some people get pretty angry when I point that out, but just half an hour of research will uncover skulduggery so breathtaking that it makes me consider how the U.S. might change its permissive attitude towards bitcoin in due course. At the very least, you would think the U.S. will try – and likely succeed – in removing bitcoin’s largest use case: its utility for getting around sanctions and facilitating illicit transactions. Some people deny that’s a thing, but it clearly is. Bomb Iran and pooooff… off goes 25% of the mining hash rate.
Bitcoin, like a CryptoPunk NFT, will never go to zero, but the future could reverse its four-year cycle of appreciation.
Yet first we need to get to the end of this cycle and see how the next one begins.
Iran, North Korea, and the Asian scam-centre slavers will do the future of bitcoin no good, but whether they will permanently damage BTC remains to be seen.
However, if you do not watch out for that sting in the tail, it may well get you.
Source: Original Article
