CoinTelegraph reports—On Tuesday morning in Asian trading, spot gold traded around $4,164 per ounce, with its gains capped due to a stronger dollar; oil prices fell on Monday, weighed down by Saudi Arabia’s significant cut to its official selling prices and further recovery in crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus on the day’s key events
Stock market
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.72% to 7,537.43, the Nasdaq rising 1.12% to 26,121.16, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.29% to 53,055.91, primarily driven by sharp gains in chip stocks such as Broadcom.
Broadcom and Apple have extended their custom chip supply agreement until 2031, sending Broadcom’s stock up 3.7% and driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index higher by 2.2%, while the S&P Information Technology sector rose 1.3%. The CEO of Longbow Asset Management noted that the market rally is highly concentrated in technology and semiconductor stocks; investors not holding these sectors have essentially missed the move, and the rally remains fragile, facing the risk that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high.
Microsoft fell nearly 1% after announcing plans to cut approximately 4,800 jobs (2.1% of its workforce). On the economic front, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slightly declined to 54.0, in line with expectations. SpaceX recorded trading volume exceeding $26 billion, with most trades executed in the final seconds before closing; the stock will be officially added to the Nasdaq-100 Index on Tuesday.
Although the S&P 500 has risen approximately 10% year-to-date, it remains about 1% below its record closing high set on June 2. The market is focused on the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with analysts expecting overall earnings growth of 24% year-over-year for S&P 500 components, and tech sector earnings projected to surge approximately 65%. Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will release their earnings later this week.
Regarding interest rates, after last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, traders priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s July 29 meeting at a 25% probability. Fed Governor Waller stated that forward guidance is a “valuable tool” when appropriate, but must avoid being overly rigid. The minutes from last month’s Fed meeting, chaired by new Chair Walsh, will be released on Wednesday.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell 0.24% on Monday, with spot gold trading at $41,634.75 per ounce, pulling back from a two-week high primarily due to a stronger dollar, which made gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
However, the noticeable slowdown in U.S. job growth in June, along with revisions downward to the data for the previous two months, prompted the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, thereby limiting the decline in gold prices.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday, with Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at the U.S. Gold Exchange, saying traders will scrutinize them closely for further clues on monetary policy direction—any unexpected signals could trigger market volatility.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market currently estimates a 57% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. JPMorgan noted in its report that gold demand from key sectors will not be as strong as previously anticipated, which will limit this year’s gold price gains; however, the bank still expects gold prices to rise to $4,300 in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth quarter.
In other precious metals, fell 0.54% to $62.01, having earlier touched its highest level since June 23; platinum declined 0.4% to $1,630.86, while palladium edged up 0.1% to $1,275.43 per ounce.
Oil market
Oil prices fell on Monday to levels seen before the outbreak of war in Iran, with closing at $71.95 per barrel and closing at $68.60 per barrel, both down about 0.2%. The decline was primarily driven by Saudi Arabia’s significant cut to its official selling prices—setting the August price for its flagship Arab Light crude sold to Asia at $1.50 per barrel below the Oman/Dubai average, the largest monthly cut on record since data collection began in 2003. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to further increase its production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, following identical increases in June and July. Additionally, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have further resumed, as previously stranded tankers successfully departed the Gulf region, increasing seaborne crude supplies and continuing to weigh on oil prices.
The head of Mizuho Securities’ energy futures division said there are increasing signs that Gulf oil-producing countries are preparing for a price war, with the UAE’s crude oil output rising above 3.8 million barrels per day in June after exiting OPEC, nearing record highs, and ADNOC also selling crude at discounted prices through tenders.
However, PVM analysts note that due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the war in Iran, major OPEC oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq face export restrictions, and most production increase plans remain on paper; in a declining market, there is no clear prospect of a short-term rebound from selling more crude oil, but lower prices will eventually stimulate demand.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Trump stated that the United States will either reach an agreement with Iran or “complete the unfinished task.” Although a 60-day ceasefire agreement was reached between the U.S. and Iran, last week’s indirect negotiations showed no public progress toward lasting peace. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces reported nighttime strikes on Russia’s largest refinery in Omsk, as well as facilities in Yaroslavl and Leningrad oblasts. According to U.S. Department of Energy data, as of the week ending July 3, U.S. strategic petroleum reserves decreased by 6.2 million barrels to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983.
Forex
The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the closing at 100.87. It had previously reached a 13-month high but pulled back after the U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a significant slowdown in job growth—only 57,000 jobs added, far below expectations—leading to a decline in market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting.
Investors are currently focusing on the Fed’s meeting minutes from June 16-17, to be released on Wednesday, for clues on interest rate prospects. Fed Chair Walsh last week stated a firm commitment to the 2% inflation target and suggested that those expecting loose policy would be “disappointed,” but City Index strategists note it remains to be seen whether other Fed officials share this view, with particular attention on whether Governor Waller will again send a clear signal.
The Japanese yen continues to hover near a 40-year low, trading at approximately 162.07 yen per U.S. dollar, slightly above the 162.84 low touched last week—the weakest level since 1986. Traders remain alert to the possibility of official intervention by Japanese authorities, but analysts doubt such measures could provide lasting support. OCBC’s foreign exchange strategist said the market is still grappling with the yen’s downside pressure from Fed hawkish risks, while intervention concerns have limited further yen depreciation.
The Head of Asian Investment Strategy at LL&G Asset Management expects that if yen volatility intensifies, Japan will intervene; however, the long-term direction of the exchange rate depends on Japan’s accommodative fiscal policy and the substantial interest rate differential with the United States, and intervention will not alter this trend.
In other currencies, the edged up 0.04% to 1.1440, close to its two-week high.
International News
Trump said resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be “much faster than people think”
Former U.S. President Trump said resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be “much faster than people think.” He stated that Russian President Putin wants to end the conflict and is “very eager” to do so. Ukrainian President Zelensky “also really wants to end the conflict right now.” “We will discuss this during the NATO summit. I believe we will bring it to an end.” (Xinhua)
The U.S. issues an “energy emergency alert” due to prolonged heatwaves
Last weekend, a widespread heatwave across the United States caused power outages for nearly one million households and businesses. Data from a real-time power outage monitoring platform in the U.S. showed that, as of around 10 p.m. Eastern Time on the 5th, approximately 704,000 users nationwide were without power, with the most severely affected areas concentrated in the northeastern U.S. Earlier on Independence Day (the 4th), the total number of customers without power had briefly exceeded 950,000. The outages led to malfunctioning traffic lights and closed stores, leaving residents struggling under the combined effects of extreme heat and lack of electricity. (CCTV News)
Microsoft Corporation in the United States announced a layoff of 4,800 employees.
On the 6th, Microsoft Corporation of the United States announced the layoff of 4,800 employees, approximately 2.1% of its global workforce, including 1,600 employees from the Xbox gaming console division. Microsoft stated that this move aims to reduce costs and is part of a larger corporate restructuring plan, with more layoffs expected this year. The plan particularly targets the underperforming Xbox gaming console division. Xbox CEO Aasha Sharma noted that the division’s current profit margins are significantly lower than those of its peers. The Xbox division is facing a severe “hardware crisis” due to a sharp surge in the cost of gaming console components. (CCTV News)
Bessent: 6 million American children have opened Trump-specific accounts
Before President Trump rang the opening bell, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen outlined the current progress of the program. He noted that 86% of the 6 million registered children come from households with annual incomes below $200,000. Under the plan, parents can open dedicated investment accounts for children born during Trump’s second term, with the government automatically depositing a $1,000 starter fund into each account. For older minors, those under 18 by the end of this year are also eligible to open such accounts, but they will not receive the $1,000 grant. The accounts will officially open for deposits on July 4, and the Treasury plans to complete the disbursement of the $1,000 grants on the same day.
Russia says contacts between the Russian and U.S. presidents will continue
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace negotiations, Russia has expressed an open attitude toward talks and looks forward to U.S. mediation. Ukraine has called on the U.S. and Europe to strengthen air defense support for Ukraine. On the 6th, Kremlin Press Secretary Peskov stated that both President Putin and President Trump believe their contacts will continue in the near future. He added that Trump’s stance on the Ukraine issue has been consistent and stable, and he is willing to listen to the messages conveyed by Putin. (CCTV News)
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in July is 25.7%, and the probability of an increase this year is 75.4%.
According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in July is 74.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 25.7%. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by September is 42.9%, with a 46.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 10.8% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by December is 24.6%, with a 42.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 32.9% chance of at least a 50-basis-point hike.
Global central banks net added 41 tons of gold in May, led by Poland and China.
Marissa Salim, Senior Research Lead for Asia Pacific at the World Gold Council, stated that global central banks significantly increased their gold purchases in May, with official gold reserves rising net by 41 tons—marking the second-highest monthly purchase volume this year and continuing strong demand from official sectors for gold assets. The Polish National Bank led the pack with an increase of 18 tons, followed by the People’s Bank of China, which added 10 tons; together, these two countries accounted for nearly 70% of the month’s net increase, highlighting the strategic consideration among emerging markets and Eastern European nations to diversify reserve assets amid rising geopolitical risks. Overall central bank gold demand in May rose compared to the more modest purchasing pace seen in previous months, reflecting a growing preference among official institutions to view gold as a stabilizing anchor against external shocks amid ongoing global trade uncertainties triggered by Trump’s tariff remarks.
Domestic News
Memory prices have been rising steadily, driving up hard drive prices as well.
In Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei, known as “China’s No. 1 Electronics Street,” gaming enthusiast Xu Shaoan recently planned to upgrade his computer to play a AAA game. After consulting, he found that a 32GB DDR5 memory kit has now risen to nearly 4,000 yuan—three to four times higher than last year—so he decided to downgrade his configuration to 24GB and wait for prices to drop before upgrading later. A reporter’s investigation revealed that, in addition to memory prices surging, hard drive prices have also climbed sharply. For example, a 1TB SSD now costs over 900 yuan. Many computer builders report that current component and system prices remain high, causing many customers to hold off on purchases. According to the reporter’s statistics, prices of mainstream storage products have increased by more than 100% compared to last year: a 1TB SSD rose from 410 yuan to 950 yuan (+132%); 16GB DDR5 memory increased from 450 yuan to 1,800 yuan (+300%); and 32GB DDR5 memory jumped from 900 yuan to 3,800 yuan (+322%). (CCTV Finance)
Hong Kong Exchange’s USD Gold Futures Trading Volume Hits New High
The Hong Kong Exchange announced that during daytime trading, 6,676 contracts of USD Gold Futures were traded, setting a new record and surpassing the previous high of 3,039 contracts recorded on November 7, 2022. The bid-ask spread for active-month contracts narrowed to one or two ticks, with the August contract reaching as low as $0.01 (one tick) and the December contract dropping to two ticks. The Hong Kong Exchange has continued implementing enhancements to the USD Gold Futures contract, attracting active participation from market participants including banks, securities firms, high-frequency trading institutions, traders, gold producers, and consumer enterprises. This marks a significant step in the Hong Kong Exchange’s strategy to refine its gold product ecosystem and deepen its multi-asset ecosystem, further supporting Hong Kong’s development as a leading international hub for gold trading and warehousing. (HKEX)
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