MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is up 1.6% at $75.01 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is up 0.8% to 40.74 euros a megawatt-hour.
–Copper futures are up 2.1% at $13,297 a metric ton.
–Gold futures are up 1.2% at $4,056.90 a troy ounce.
TOP STORY:
Iran Estimates $40 Billion Windfall From Reopening Hormuz With Gulf States
MANAMA, Bahrain-Iran is pushing to make billions of dollars from the Strait of Hormuz as the regime positions itself to manage the global oil artery it severed at the start of the war.
The Islamic Republic estimates that charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait would bring in $40 billion a year in revenue for states involved, according to officials familiar with the matter. The idea, if implemented, would give Tehran cash flow and control that it didn’t command before the war.
The regime is looking to models around the world, including the Dardanelles, the officials said, where Turkey charges ships a tax known as the gold franc for passage to and from the Aegean Sea through the international waterway.
OTHER STORIES:
Chevron, Eni and Repsol’s Operations in Venezuela Unaffected by Earthquakes
Oil companies Chevron, Eni and Repsol said their operations continue in Venezuela on Thursday, a day after powerful earthquakes killed more than 160 people.
The companies said their assets remain operational after two earthquakes hit the north of the country at 5pm local time Wednesday. A 7.2-magnitude quake was quickly followed by a second, 7.5-magnitude quake, killing an estimated 164 people and leaving 1,000 people injured.
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Why the Middle East Helium Supply Shock Didn’t Hit Chip Makers
The Middle East war cut off roughly a third of the world’s supply of helium, the invisible powerhouse of modern technology. The semiconductor industry so critical to artificial-intelligence systems didn’t even blink.
Chip makers were one step ahead thanks to a diverse network of suppliers that allowed their plants globally to keep operating at pace, backed by extensive helium storage caverns and on-site inventories.
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Oil Retreats to Prewar Levels as Gulf Flows Through Hormuz Pick Up
Oil prices slipped back to levels seen before the Iran war as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up and a wave of supply trapped inside the Persian Gulf for months started flowing again.
The most actively traded Brent futures contract, which expires July, fell 1.3% to $72.88 a barrel in midmorning European trading on Thursday, while the U.S. oil gauge West Texas Intermediate was down 1.2% to $69.44 a barrel. Both benchmarks have fallen nearly 30% so far this month.
MARKET TALKS:
Aid to Farmers in 2026 To Exceed Covid-Era Payouts — Market Talk
1146 ET – Farm income looks to be increasingly buoyed by government payments, with the Trump Administration calling for a fresh round of aid totaling $11B to $12B. Last month, the USDA said that 2026 net farm income was forecast at $153.4B, with $44.3B coming from “direct government farm payments.” With the additional supplement, direct government payments now exceed the record-high of $45.7B set in 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic shutting down markets and scrambling supply chains. Increased farm aid also brings government payments as a percentage of farm aid comparable to the late 90s. ([email protected])
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U.S. Natural Gas Inventories Post Near-Average Build — Market Talk
1056 ET – U.S. natural gas inventories posted a close-to-normal build last week, leaving the storage surplus against the five-year average virtually unchanged, according to EIA data. Gas stored in underground facilities increased by 76 billion cubic feet to 2,835 Bcf, which was 152 Bcf or 5.7% above the 2021-2025 average for the time of year. The net injection was smaller than for the same week last year, widening the deficit against the year-earlier level to 49 Bcf from 29 Bcf. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had predicted a 70 Bcf increase in storage for last week. Nymex natural gas sheds gains in the wake of the report and is down 0.5% at $3.205/mmBtu.([email protected])
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Oil Tests Prewar Levels As Middle East Flows Pick Up
0855 ET – Oil futures are toying with prewar levels as the market reacts to the quick movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz under the U.S.-Iran agreement. Brent for September delivery is trading above the August contract-a condition known as contango-which “would be much more typical of a huge supply surplus instead of the exceptionally low global stockpiles that currently exist,” Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. “This seeming anomaly forces a reminder that commodity futures are anticipatory, and it is obvious that the speculative entities are expecting an elimination of the large crude deficit that currently exists.” WTI is down 1% at $69.62 a barrel. August Brent falls 1.2% to $72.87 and the most active September contract is off 0.8% at $73.27 a barrel.([email protected])
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U.S. Natural Gas Gains Ahead of Storage Data
0937 ET – U.S. natural gas futures are higher as weather models overnight add a little more heat to the near-term outlook, lifting expected cooling demand. The immediate focus is on the EIA’s weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show a 70 Bcf injection into storage, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. That would be below the 75 Bcf average build for the week and trim the surplus over the 2021-2025 average to 146 Bcf from 151 Bcf the previous week. Nymex natural gas is up 2.6% at $3.304/mmBtu.([email protected])
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Thyssenkrupp’s Listing of Materials Services Unit a Near-Term Catalyst — Market Talk
1425 GMT – Thyssenkrupp’s planned partial listing of its materials services unit is a key near-term catalyst alongside portfolio monetization efforts, Bank of America analysts say in a research note. The German conglomerate will distribute 49% of the business to shareholders while retaining control, a structure broadly seen as similar to previous successful spinoffs such as Marine Systems, the analysts say. Such transactions have historically supported sentiment even when value migration into the listed subsidiary has been significant, they say. The analysts remain constructive, highlighting continued optionality from further portfolio actions across steel and automotive divisions. Shares trade 3.3% higher at 11.065 euros. ([email protected])
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Hogs Lower Ahead of Quarterly Report — Market Talk
1006 ET – Lean hog futures on the CME are down 0.6% ahead of the USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report due this afternoon. Hogs slid in recent months, as pork cutouts were generally weak. The price decrease stems from the ample availability of meat, says StoneX in a note. “We do continue to see weights track record heavy for this time of year,” the firm says. Live cattle futures are up 0.1% in early trading. ([email protected])
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European Energy Stocks Slip as Oil Prices Return to Prewar Levels — Market Talk
0742 GMT – European energy stocks open slightly lower as oil prices fall back to prewar levels. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up and boost hopes that supplies from the region will bounce back. Brent crude falls 1% to $73.14 a barrel, while WTI futures are down 0.8% to $69.94 a barrel. Italy’s Eni slides 1%. In London, BP drops 0.8% while Shell inches 0.5% lower. France’s TotalEnergies is 0.7% lower.([email protected])
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Oil Back to Prewar Levels on Optimism Over Persian Gulf Supply Recovery
0722 GMT – Oil prices fall back to prewar levels as tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes for a relatively quick recovery in Persian Gulf supplies. In early European trading, Brent crude falls 1.1% to $73.10 a barrel, while WTI futures are down 0.9% to $69.70 a barrel. “The market is likely extrapolating the swift, thus far, recovery of Mideast supply and already pricing expected future surpluses,” analysts at Goldman Sachs say. “Beyond the spot-price selloff, the market is increasingly challenging its prior assumption that long-dated prices need to incorporate a sticky security premium.” According to the bank, total Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 63% of normal levels, supported by increased tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz and a higher proportion of “visible” vessels that have resumed using their ship-tracking signals. ([email protected])
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Palm Oil Falls on Lower Soybean Oil Prices — Market Talk
0242 GMT – Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking declines in soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. Softer crude oil prices are also weighing on crude palm oil prices as weaker oil markets diminish palm oil’s appeal as a biofuel alternative, it adds. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery is 95 ringgit lower at 4,538 ringgit a ton. ([email protected])
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Copper Flat as Tight Supply Offsets Seasonal Demand Weakness — Market Talk
0214 GMT – Copper prices are flat in Asia trade as persistent supply-side tightness continue to offset concerns over weakening seasonal demand, say Ruida Futures analysts in a note. Copper concentrate treatment charges remain near historically low levels, highlighting tightness in raw-material availability. Demand for copper remains subdued, they add. Elevated copper prices and weaker downstream processing orders during the traditional off-season is curbing purchasing appetite, with buyers largely maintaining hand-to-mouth procurement and selectively replenishing inventories on price dips, they say. The three-month LME copper contract is flat at $13,091.00 a ton. ([email protected]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
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Iron Ore Recovers, But Rising Inventories Weigh on Outlook — Market Talk
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06-25-26 1251ET
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