The 50-day EMA looks as if it has offered a bit of resistance, so that makes sense from a technical analysis standpoint as well. When I look at the totality of the market, I believe that we are still very much in a consolidation range between $70 at the bottom and $90 at the top. The $80 level just above where we are now is basically fair value, I believe.
Interest Rates and Supply
As long as rates remain strong, silver is going to struggle despite the fact that there is a massive amount of demand out there for the supply that we actually have. In fact, the supply isn’t enough to keep up with it but that’s been the case for years.
So, we’re not focusing on that anymore, we’re focusing on interest rates. As soon as we get a solution to the situation in the Middle East, then we will probably start to focus on supply again, and then silver will probably take off.
I am bullish longer term I just recognize that right now the interest rate markets continue to be the major driver of where we go next. If we were to break down from here, I’ll be watching not only the $70 level but also the 200-day EMA.
Anything below their things get ugly I don’t expect that, but I recognize it’s a possibility.
