Statistics Canada out with the non-residential capital and repair expenditures report for 2026 intentions, and the headline is a deceleration in spending growth.
Total capex by businesses, governments and institutions is expected to rise $14.4 billion in 2026, down from the $17.4 billion increase seen in 2025. The composition matters here though — machinery and equipment spending is actually expected to decline by $732 million (-0.6%), with non-residential buildings and structures doing the heavy lifting at +$15.2 billion (+5.9%).
The story is investment in natural resources while traditional capex — factories, technology — falls.
The tariff fingerprints are showing up. Manufacturing capex fell 2.6% in 2025 to $34 billion, with preliminary estimates showing a “marked downward revision” from intentions collected a year earlier as projects were postponed or reduced. For 2026, expected reductions in transportation equipment (-$1.1B) and primary metal manufacturing (-$400M) — two subsectors “hit hardest by US tariffs” — are set to more than offset a $1.3B bump in chemical manufacturing.
Eleven sectors are planning to cut capex totalling $5.0 billion vs. nine sectors expecting increases totalling $19.4 billion. It’s a sign that it’s a two-track economy.
The bright spots:
Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction is looking at $65.3 billion (+6.8%) after pulling back 3.1% in 2025. Gold mining stands out with a +20% jump in investment intentions — no surprise given where gold prices have been (gold up $43 to $5190 today). Transportation and warehousing should see the biggest dollar increase at +$5.6 billion, with total sector investment now more than double pre-2018 levels.
The public sector is still spending but the pace is fading fast — +5.1% expected in 2026 vs. +13.5% in 2025. Utilities capex is set to jump 9.7% ($4.5B) as grid reliability and electricity demand projects ramp up.
Regionally, Northwest Territories leads at +14.4%, followed by Yukon (+13.5%) and Ontario (+7.0%). Nunavut is the outlier at -20.4% after a 29.2% surge in 2025.
The takeaway for markets: This is a story of slowing momentum with tariff headwinds clearly weighing on manufacturing investment. The shift away from machinery and equipment toward structures suggests businesses are cautious on expansion but still committing to longer-term projects. The public sector continues to do a lot of the heavy lifting here.
The report is ok but not a ringing endorsement of business confidence. I tend to think there is some investment excitement that’s build and the dam could break if there’s some certainty on North American trade; something that should come later this year. If/when that happens, it could be a big tailwind for the Canadian dollar.
USD/CAD was last down 8 pips to 1.3691 after the pair touched a one-month high yesterday.
