- Trump says Iran advancing missile, nuclear programs despite negotiations
- Japan govmt nominates new BOJ board members as rate-hike path comes into focus
- SOTU Trump: Says tariffs stay despite Supreme Court loss, pivots to new global levy
- Nikkei hits record high as AI fears fade and yen weakens
- Oil holds near seven-month highs ahead of US-Iran Geneva talks, EIA data awaited
- Advance excerpts of Trump’s speech show its lackluster
- Japan services inflation holds at 2.6%, keeping BOJ hike bias intact
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9321 (vs. estimate at 6.8824)
- Australia CPI beats estimates, lifting RBA hike odds and boosting Aussie dollar
- Australian January CPI 3.8% y/y (expected 3.7%, prior 3.8%)
- Bloomberg: Harvard study finds AI predicts only 71% of active-fund trades
- Japan’s Nikkei seen surging to 60,750, extending historic record-breaking run
- Goldman Sachs: Japan rally has further to run after Takaichi victory
- SNB sees inflation rising despite possible negative prints, ready to intervene in FX (CHF)
- Private survey inventory shows a huge headline crude oil build, much larger than expected
In brief:
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Australian January CPI firm; core measures accelerate
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May RBA hike odds rise; quarterly CPI still key
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AUD strengthens on rate expectations
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Nikkei hits fresh record on tech rebound, softer yen
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Japan nominates two new BOJ board members
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Yen gives back gains after nomination headlines
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Trump delivers record-length State of the Union
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Tariffs to remain despite Supreme Court ruling
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Indian equities see renewed foreign inflows
It was another active session across Asia-Pacific, driven by impactful data and policy headlines.
From Australia, January inflation printed on the firm side of expectations, reinforcing the case for further tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia and lifting the Australian dollar. Headline CPI held at 3.8% y/y (vs 3.7% expected), while core measures firmed. The trimmed mean rose 0.3% m/m, pushing the annual pace to 3.4% from 3.3%. The weighted median also printed 0.3% m/m, holding at 3.6% y/y. At roughly a 3.5–3.6% annualised rate, underlying inflation remains well above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
Goods inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y, while services eased slightly but stayed elevated at 3.9%. Markets lifted the probability of another hike in May. That said, the next RBA meeting is March 16–17. However, officials have repeatedly stressed the importance of quarterly CPI, and with the next print due April 29, it suggests policymakers may wait until then for broader confirmation. The Australian dollar rose on the release and has extended gains.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 climbed to a fresh record high, supported by a rebound in tech shares as AI-disruption fears eased and the yen softened. Separately, the government nominated Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato as new Bank of Japan board members. The appointments could influence the pace of future rate hikes. While the board has leaned toward gradual tightening, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stance on no further rate hikes has drawn attention. The nominees’ policy leanings remain unclear. The yen initially slipped on the news but the move lacked follow-through.
In the US, President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address on record. While much was not market-sensitive, he reiterated that tariffs will remain in place despite the Supreme Court ruling, with the administration pivoting to Section 122 authority. He also addressed Iran, saying diplomacy remains preferred despite ongoing missile and nuclear concerns. Oil is a touch lower on Trump reiterating his preference for a diplomatic solution.
Elsewhere, foreign inflows into Indian equities are on track to exceed domestic institutional buying for the first time in 17 months, aided by improving earnings momentum and more attractive valuations.
