- Prior was the lowest reading since 2014 at 84.5
Details:
- Present situation 120.0 vs 113.7 prior
- Expectations 72.0 vs 65.1 prior
- Jobs plentiful 28.0% vs 25.8% prior
- Jobs hard to get 20.6% vs 20.8% prior
US consumer confidence
Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked upward in February for consumers under age 35, which continued to be the most optimistic group. Confidence edged down for respondents 35 and older.
I find this something of a narrative violation:
The
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index traced a dramatic arc
through 2025, defined by a steep erosion of sentiment tied to tariff
uncertainty, a brief mid-year recovery, and a renewed slide into
year-end and an 11-year low in January 2026.
Confidence
began the year at its highest point, then fell for five consecutive
months from February through June. The decline accelerated sharply in
March and April as tariff fears intensified. By April, the index had
plunged to 86.0 — levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic —
with the Expectations Index cratering to 54.4, its lowest since October
2011. Nearly a third of consumers expected fewer jobs ahead,
approaching levels last seen during the Great Recession, and
expectations for future income turned negative for the first time in
five years. The decline cut across all age groups, income brackets, and
political affiliations.
May
brought a notable 12.3-point rebound to 98.0 — the largest monthly gain
in four years — fueled by the May 12 U.S.-China tariff pause. The
improvement was broad-based, though the Expectations Index remained
below 80, the threshold historically associated with recession risk.
That
recovery proved short-lived. Confidence resumed declining from the
summer onward, falling for five straight months through December. By
year-end, the index stood at 89.1, with the Present Situation Index
dropping sharply to 116.8 as views on business conditions turned
negative for the first time since September 2024. The Expectations Index
held at a weak 70.7, marking 11 consecutive months below the
recession-warning threshold of 80. Write-in responses continued to be
dominated by concerns about prices, tariffs, and politics, though
mentions of personal finances, immigration, and war increased into
December.
January
2026 brought a further 9.7-point plunge to 84.5 — driven by a
near-10-point drop in the Present Situation Index — suggesting the
cautious consumer mood that defined 2025 has carried firmly into the new
year.
