Ethereum [ETH] fell below its long-term swing low at $2,111, set in June 2025. Over the past 10 days, this former low has served as resistance, rebuffing bulls’ attempts to push the prices higher.
Whale deposits to centralized exchanges and a falling taker buy-sell ratio reflected seller domination in execution. The sustained decline in ETH exchange reserves argued for supply scarcity and long-term positioning.
The migration of ETH into the hands of high conviction, long-term holders limits rapid distribution capacity and is a sign of capital consolidation, reported AMBCrypto. The amount of Ethereum deposited into staking contracts has reached an all-time high too.
What impact will this have on ETH price trends?
In the long-term, ETH appeared to be compressed like a spring. Once macro conditions change and market sentiment shifts as capital flows back into the crypto sphere, the spring could unwind explosively.
Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView
However, until then, traders and investors need to exercise patience. The prevailing trend has been firmly bearish. At the time of writing, the $2.1k-level was a local resistance, with $2,500-$2,750 emerging as another supply zone overhead.
The OBV, like the price, has been making lower lows and lower highs since October – Characteristic of a downtrend. The MACD was below the zero line, but its bullish crossover reflected the past ten days’ attempts to climb back above $2.1k.
Traders, watch out for more consolidation
Source: CoinGlass
The 3-month liquidation heatmap revealed that a sizeable cluster of liquidations was building up in the $3.4k-$3.8k. This was too far away to be immediately actionable to traders. More locally, there were two magnetic zones building up around $1.55k-$1.7k and $2.15k-$2.55k.
After a violent move, prices tend to consolidate and go sideways to build up liquidity in either direction. After collecting one band, it tends to reverse to the other, effectively trapping breakout traders.
What this means for Ethereum is that a drop towards $1.6k would likely present a long-term buying opportunity in the coming months. This is not to say that $1.5k-$1.6k will be the market bottom – It also depends on Bitcoin [BTC] and macro conditions.
Before that, consolidation between $1.8k-$2.1k would be likely.
A move up to $2.5k over the next month or two is possible, but will be heavily laced with the likelihood of another bearish price reaction.
Final Summary
- Ethereum’s migration into the hands of high conviction, long-term holders limits distribution potential.
- This is not an immediate buy signal. We are likely to see a few months of consolidation before bullish recovery can begin.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
