A round up of the estimates ahead of the US CPI report later

BofA
– Core CPI estimate of 0.25% m/m
– “A notable acceleration from the recent trend”
– “Stronger price hikes for core goods,
discretionary services, and medical services should drive the pickup in core inflation”
– Sees core PCE print coming in at 0.22% m/m though, which would “lower the likelihood of a
September cut”

Goldman Sachs
– Core CPI estimate of 0.23% m/m
– “We have penciled in moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed”
– That translates to roughly +0.08% on core inflation
– Core PCE print estimated at 0.25% m/m
– “Going forward, tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and we expect
monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3% to 0.4% over the next few months”

Citi
– Core CPI estimate of 0.22% m/m
– “Tariffs announced for 1 August create upside risk to the effective tariff rate, but early indications suggest
pass-through to consumer prices may be limited”
– Core PCE print estimated at 0.24% m/m
– Supercore inflation “will likely stay
subdued given softening consumer demand and outright house price declines”
– “That means even if goods
inflation picks up in coming months, Fed officials can be more confident it will be a narrow, one-time
increase in goods prices rather than a broader, more persistent inflation”

JP Morgan
– Core CPI estimate of 0.29% m/m
– This would be “a reflection of additional upward pressure
on goods prices from tariffs as well as less of the unusual weakness in services prices seen over the past
few months”
– “Another key sector for CPI inflation is autos, and there the picture remains mixed as tariff pressures
gradually seep into transaction prices”
– “We have already seen upward movement in prices of consumer electronics and
technology products, as well as certain household items and furnishings, as tariffs have been put into
place”
– If realised, the report will reaffirm “the consensus view on the FOMC to remain on hold for now, in part
because of concerns about further tariff-induced inflation”

Wells Fargo
– Core CPI estimate of 0.24% m/m
– Risks are skewed more towards a 0.3% print than a 0.1% print though
– Core goods prices seen up 0.2% while core services prices seen up 0.25%

Barclays
– Core CPI estimate of 0.23% m/m
– “A soft print by any standard amid a modest run-up
in core goods and core services inflation”
– Core PCE print estimated at 0.25% m/m
– That should reflect “modest upward price
pressures in a handful of core goods categories amid limited tariff pass-through to prices”

Deutsche
– Core CPI estimate of 0.32% m/m
– “We will mainly be looking for further signs of tariff impacts in the core goods categories, especially for
those which have already seen some price pressures over the last couple months i.e. household
furnishings and recreational goods”
– Core PCE print estimated at 0.32% m/m

As you can see, it’s a fine line between 0.2% and 0.3% on the monthly print. So, do be on the lookout for that and the exact decimal figure that could skew the number to either side.