Canada CPI – Tuesday, July 15 at 8:30am ET
Canada’s inflation data will be closely watched, with headline CPI m/m expected at 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Both Median and Trimmed CPI y/y are forecast to remain steady at 3.0%, signaling a still-elevated but stable inflation environment. A softer print could strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada to consider further easing, while any upside surprise may delay those expectations.
US CPI – Tuesday, July 15at 8:30 AM ET
US inflation is also in focus and the key release for the week with Core CPI m/m and headline CPI m/m both expected to rise 0.3%, up from 0.1% last month. The y/y CPI is forecast at 2.6%, ticking up from 2.4%. A hotter-than-expected print could weigh on Fed rate cut expectations, while a softer release would support the ongoing disinflation narrative and increase the hollers for a rate cut from Pres. Trump and other government officials
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 4 PM Annual Mansion House Financial and Professional Services Dinner, in London. Markets will listen closely to Bailey’s comments for any clues on timing for future rate adjustments.
UK CPI – Wednesday, July 16 at 2 AM ET
UK CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, keeping the pressure on the BOE as inflation stays above target. Markets will listen closely to Bailey’s comments for any clues on timing for future rate adjustments.
US PPI – Wednesday, July 16 at 8:30am ET
Producer inflation is projected to edge higher, with Core PPI m/m forecast at 0.2% and headline PPI m/m at 0.3%, both slightly above last month’s 0.1%. While not as market-moving as CPI, these figures offer insight into upstream pricing pressures. The pieces of the CPI and the PPI will have the number crunchers forecasting the PCE data to be released later in the month. That inflation measure is the favored by the Fed.
Australia Jobs Report – Wednesday, July 16 at 9:30pm ET (Thursday morning in Australia)
Australia’s labor market is expected to show a solid rebound, with 21.0K jobs added, compared to a -2.5K loss previously. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. A strong report could support the RBA’s neutral-to-hawkish stance, while a weak print may reignite easing discussions.
US Retail Sales & Jobless Claims – Thursday, July 17 at 8:30am ET
Consumer spending is expected to recover modestly, with Core Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% m/m and headline Retail Sales at 0.2% m/m, following last month’s declines. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are projected to rise slightly to 234K from 227K. The data will help shape expectations around consumer resilience and labor market conditions heading into Q3.
Other second tier data on tap next week includes:
China Data – Monday, July 14
China will release a batch of key economic figures, including GDP y/y (expected at 5.1%), Industrial Production y/y (5.6%), and Retail Sales y/y (5.2%), all showing slight deceleration from the prior month. However, New Loans surged to 1960B, up sharply from 620B, suggesting increased credit support. These figures will offer insight into the health of China’s economy and its momentum heading into H2.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Tuesday, July 15 at 5:00am ET
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index is expected to rise to 50.8 from 47.5, reflecting growing optimism among investors and analysts about the German economic outlook despite broader European uncertainties.
Empire State Manufacturing Index – Tuesday, July 15 at 8:30am ET
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is projected to improve to -7.8 from -16.0, but still remains in contraction territory. While less negative, this suggests manufacturing activity in New York remains sluggish. The NY kicks off the regional indices for the month
UK Labor Data – Thursday, July 17 at 2 AM ET
UK wage pressures are expected to ease slightly, with the Average Earnings Index (3m/y) falling to 5.0% from 5.3%, while the Claimant Count Change is forecast at 17.9K, down from 33.1K. This will offer an updated look at the UK’s labor market tightness and its implications for BOE policy.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday, July 17 at 8:30am ET
The Philly Fed Index is forecast to rebound to 0.4 from -4.0, possibly signaling a modest recovery in regional manufacturing conditions after recent weakness.
Fed Speak – Thursday, July 17 at 3:30pm ET
FOMC member Waller will speak, and markets will be listening closely for any updated views on the path of rate cuts, especially following key CPI and labor data earlier in the week.Waller has been a dove and coming after the June CPI and PPI data, his comments will be eyed for his current assessment for a policy change in July.
UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations – Friday, July 18 at 10:00am ET
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to rise slightly to 61.4 from 60.7, suggesting a modest improvement in consumer outlook. Inflation expectations are projected to remain steady at 5.0%, a key metric for Fed watchers.
