- BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak in a few hours time
- Trump will hold a US National Security Meeting on Friday
- New Zealand PM to meet China President Xi to discuss trade and regional tensions
- JP Morgan maintains bearish dollar outlook as growth slows and global policy diverges
- UK’s Lammy and US’ Rubio met on Iran-Israel fighting
- Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear
- Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi & 3 EU foreign ministers meet Friday
- Relatively quiet re news from the Middle East is supporting risk FX
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1695 (vs. estimate at 7.1801)
- People’s Bank of China leaves Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, as expected
- Israeli media notes that Iran is planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Europe
- MSCI says that South Korea has improved short-selling access
- BoJ minutes note the rising downside risks for Japan’s economy, rates must be kept low
- Still to come from the BOJ – May meeting minutes, Governor Ueda speaking
- Japan May 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, still
- UK consumer confidence in June rises to -18 from -20 in May
- US thinks Iran likely to make nuclear bomb if Fordow is attacked, Khamenei assasinated
- ICYMI – Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%
- TD says the Bank of England has left GBP with not a lot to chew on
- Heads up for New Zealand dollar traders – markets are closed Friday for a holiday
- Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak wants oil output boosted
- 4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 June: The focus is on what next in Iran/Israel conflict
- Trade ideas thread – Friday, 20 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Risk assets found support during the session here following Thursday’s headlines from the U.S., where Trump said he would decide whether to strike Iran “within two weeks.” While the phrasing doesn’t rule out an immediate move, markets chose to focus on the delay, and optimism prevailed. The USD slipped against major FX, U.S. equity futures pushed higher, while crude oil and gold edged lower.
Looking ahead, Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi is due to meet with the foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva on Friday. Notably, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff, will not attend. Separately, Trump is scheduled to convene a National Security Council meeting on Friday.
From Japan, May inflation data showed headline CPI at 3.5%, down slightly from April’s 3.6% but still marking 38 consecutive months above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The BoJ’s preferred core measure, CPI excluding fresh food, rose for a third straight month to 3.7% y/y, the highest since January 2023 and a touch above expectations. The rise continues to be driven by staple foods—rice prices are now up 102% y/y, a significant pressure point for consumers. In contrast, services inflation ticked up to 1.4%, modestly higher than April.
Minutes from the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting, released today, showed board members broadly supporting further rate hikes over time, though some favored a pause in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. A few policymakers also noted that Japan’s path to achieving stable 2% inflation had likely been delayed by about a year.
From China, the People’s Bank of China left its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday:
This decision follows last month’s broad monetary easing and suggests a pause to assess impact on growth momentum.
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