Consumer confidence
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Index Value: The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May 2025, up from 86.0 in April 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 87.0.
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Present Situation Index: Declined to 135.9 from 133.5 in April 2025, indicating a slightly less optimistic view of current business and labor market conditions. Best since February
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Expectations Index: Jumped to 72.8 from 54.4 in April 2025, reflecting improved consumer optimism about short-term prospects for income, business, and labor markets, though still below the 80 threshold often associated with recession risks. Best since February.
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One year inflation expectations fell to 6.5% from 7.0%
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Key Drivers:
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The significant rise in the Expectations Index suggests growing consumer optimism, potentially driven by easing concerns over tariffs or economic policies following April’s pessimism.
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The Present Situation Index was less which indicates some caution regarding current economic conditions, possibly due to mixed signals in employment or business conditions.
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Context:
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This marks a reversal from five consecutive months of declining confidence, with April 2025 hitting a nearly five-year low of 86.0. The high in November reached 112.80 before starting the decline.
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The 10.9-point increase from April to May was a notable surprise, beating expectations significantly.
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Economic Implications:
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The rebound in confidence could signal increased consumer spending, which accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP, potentially supporting economic growth.
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However, the Expectations Index below 80 still suggests some caution about recession risks in the near term.
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Survey Details:
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Conducted by The Conference Board with Toluna, based on an online sample of ~5,000 households, assessing current and future business, employment, and income conditions.
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Data cutoff for May 2025 results was approximately mid-May, with final results released on May 27, 2025
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Other details from the Survey
Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved in May.
- 21.9% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 19.2% in April.
- 14.0% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 16.3%.
Consumers’ views of the labor market weakened in May.
- 31.8% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from 31.2% in April.
- 18.6% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 17.5%.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers were less pessimistic about future business conditions in May.
- 19.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 15.9% in April.
- 26.7% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 34.9%.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market outlook was also less negative in May.
- 19.2% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 13.9% in April.
- 26.6% anticipated fewer jobs, down from 32.4%.
Consumers’ outlook for their income prospects turned positive in May.
- 18.0% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, up from 15.9% in April.
- 13.8% expected their income to decrease, up from 17.7%.
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