Fundamental
Overview
As the market finished to
reprice the interest rates expectations for the Fed and got back in line with
the central bank’s baseline scenario of two rate cuts in 2025, the pressure on
gold waned and the precious metal started to climb up again.
Last Friday, Trump’s threat
of imposing a 50% tariff on EU on June 1st because of slow progress
on trade negotiations boosted gold, but as things improved and the tariffs got
delayed to the original deadline in July, gold erased all the gains.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed
easing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations could
weigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data and Fed comments.
For now, we are stuck in a
big consolidation as the market awaits the next key catalyst to trigger a
breakout and a more sustained trend.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold rejected the downward trendline that’s been defining the
correction. That’s where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the
trendline to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase
the bullish bets into a new all-time high.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The price broke below the trendline today and the sellers started to
pile in for a bigger pullback into the 3278 level. That’s where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to target a break
above the major downward trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the sellers remain in control for now and from
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the 3278 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we have the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow,
we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures and on Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index
and the final UMich Consumer Sentiment report.
Watch the video below
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