Ethereum has seen a significant surge in recent weeks, rising more than 40% in the last month and reclaiming the $2,500 mark after a drop toward $1,800.
But despite the bullish momentum, there are signs that the rally may be hitting a wall. The $2,800 level is emerging as a critical zone of resistance, and a closer look at on-chain and technical data suggests that selling pressure could rise as Ethereum (ETH) inches closer to it.
According to a May 24 post by Glassnode, there’s a notable cluster of investor cost basis levels around $2,800. This means that many holders who previously bought at that level, and have been underwater for months, may now see a chance to exit at break-even. As ETH approaches this zone, those investors could add significant sell-side pressure to the market.
Adding to the caution, sentiment in the futures market appears to be shifting. In a May 25 post, Santiment contributor ShayanMarkets noted a sharp drop in Ethereum’s Taker Buy-Sell Ratio, a metric that tracks whether aggressive market participants are leaning more toward buying or selling.
The 14-day moving average for the ratio is falling, indicating that the derivatives market is being taken over by sellers. This could point to a more substantial correction if the trend continues.Â
Looking at the technical picture, ETH is still on an uptrend, but some cracks are starting to show. The token is still trading above all significant short- and mid-term moving averages on the daily chart, an overall bullish sign. Since ETH is also trading above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the longer-term trend appears to be healthy as well.
But there are indications that the rally is cooling. Following a strong expansion earlier this month, the Bollinger Bands have begun to tighten, indicating that volatility may be easing. Ethereum is currently trading near the midline of the Bollinger Band, indicating that the market is undecided.
At roughly 63.9, the relative strength index is holding steady in bullish territory, but it is no longer overbought. However, the moving average convergence divergence has begun to flatten out and just displayed a bearish crossover, which may be an early warning sign of the waning momentum.
From here, two scenarios could possible play out. If the $2,800 resistance breaks convincingly, especially with the SEC’s decision on staking of Ethereum ETFs due by June 1, ETH could make a quick move toward $3,000 and beyond. Institutional demand through yield-bearing ETFs would be a powerful tailwind.Â
However, if selling pressure builds up around $2,800, particularly from aggressive futures traders and break-even sellers, Ethereum might undergo a healthy correction and perhaps bounce back to the $2,200 support before any new leg higher. Ethereum’s upward trend is still in place for the time being, but caution is advised.
