Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today – tradeCompass Forecast (May 23, 2025)

TradeCompass Summary for Bitcoin Futures Today

• Current Price (MBT) at the time of this analysis: $110,970

• Intraday Bias: Bearish below $111,383 (today’s VWAP)

• Bullish Threshold: $111,800 and above

• Bearish Threshold: Below today’s VWAP of $111,383

• Key Bearish Targets: $110,470 → $109,715 → $108,750 → $106,875 → $106,500

• Key Bullish Targets (only above $111,800): $112,000 → $112,500 → $113,320 → $117,000

Market Context and Directional Bias for Bitcoin Futures Today

At the time of this analysis, micro Bitcoin futures (MBT) are trading at $110,970, marking a 0.42% decline from the previous day’s close. From a tradeCompass perspective, this places Bitcoin in a short-term intraday bearish bias, as price is currently:

• Below today’s VWAP of $111,383

• Below yesterday’s VWAP of $111,157

• Below yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL) of $110,930

The confluence of multiple VWAPs and the VAL acting as overhead resistance strengthens the bearish outlook. Until we see a sustained break above $111,800 (the first upper deviation of today’s VWAP), the default plan remains to favor short setups and partial profit-taking at logical levels.

Key Levels and Partial Profit Targets for Bitcoin Futures

Bearish Scenario (Active below $111,383 VWAP)

$110,470 – Just above yesterday’s first lower VWAP deviation. Often attracts responsive buyers, making it a smart first scale-out for shorts.

$109,715 – Near the second lower VWAP deviation. A deeper target indicating stronger bearish momentum.

$108,750 – Above May 21st’s Value Area High, likely to draw short-term positioning exits.

$106,875 – Just above the Point of Control (POC) from May 21. A natural support zone where profit-taking and buyer defense often emerge.

$106,500 – A major level with multiple-day confluence:

Bullish Scenario (Only valid above $111,800)

$112,000 – Close-by target and round number psychological level; sits just below yesterday’s VAH.

$112,500 – Aligned with the third upper VWAP deviation of today.

$113,320 – Matches yesterday’s third upper VWAP deviation, where profit-taking is likely to occur.

$117,000 – Long-term runner target for bullish continuation; previously discussed in longer-horizon forecasts: Bitcoin Price Forecast – Also Using Liquidation Levels

Educational Insight: VWAP and Value Area in Bitcoin Futures Trading

The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) provides an intraday fair value by weighting price by volume. When price trades below VWAP, it often signals institutional selling pressure; above VWAP suggests buyer dominance.

VWAP standard deviations help define dynamic zones of price extension or mean reversion. These bands expand during volatile sessions and contract in consolidation, helping intraday traders determine high-probability reversal or continuation points.

Complementing this, the Volume Profile outlines areas where trading activity was most concentrated:

• Value Area High (VAH): Top of the 70% value zone; acts as resistance

• Point of Control (POC): The most actively traded price; often acts as a price magnet

• Value Area Low (VAL): Bottom of the value zone; typically acts as support

Understanding where Bitcoin is in relation to these zones allows traders to position around acceptance vs rejection levels, increasing the odds of well-timed entries and exits.

tradeCompass Methodology and Risk Management for Bitcoin Futures

The tradeCompass methodology is designed to simplify complex price action into clear directional thresholds and logical partial targets. This minimizes emotional trading and overtrading by enforcing discipline:

• Only one trade per direction per day: Once partial targets are hit, wait for a full reset before reversing bias.

• Stop-loss placement must respect the compass: Never place a stop beyond the opposite threshold — a breach invalidates the trade premise.

• Adapt your entry confirmation: Some traders use candle closes above/below thresholds, others wait for a momentum burst. Choose what suits your risk profile.

• Move stops after partial exits: Reduce risk exposure while allowing the rest of the trade to breathe.

Clarification for Traders Using tradeCompass

This tradeCompass analysis should be read as a navigation map, not a directional prediction. The key is how price behaves near the mapped levels:

• If Bitcoin futures stay below VWAP and fail to reclaim it intraday, short setups toward lower partial targets remain valid.

• If price breaks above $111,800 and holds, that shifts the bias — and bullish targets can be pursued accordingly.

The real value lies in reacting to price with a structured plan, not in forecasting with blind conviction.

Disclaimer for Bitcoin Traders

This content is provided as decision-support, not investment advice. Bitcoin futures are volatile instruments and carry significant risk. The tradeCompass system provides a structured framework to define intraday opportunity zones — but outcomes depend on market behavior and personal trade execution.

Always trade at your own risk. Stay informed, stay patient, and trade smart.