00:00 Speaker A
US stocks climb, rallying on trade optimism as Trump says buy stocks now. Yahoo finances Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared.
00:13 Jared Blickre
Thank you. First up, uh guess what? Head and shoulders above resistance. What does this mean? Well, let me show you picture’s worth a thousand words on the YFi interactive. That’s why we have it here. This is the Nasdaq 100. S&P 500 looks similar, but I like the way this pattern is kind of just shaping up in the uh Nasdaq 100 here. This right here is an inverse head and shoulders, and we don’t have the right shoulder just yet, and it might be a little bit smaller, could be a little bit bigger, but this is what I’m seeing right now. The key is we need to punch above the neckline, so that’s going to be around 21,000 or so. What that tends to do is then you get another reaction, and eventually you go much higher, and it tends to be about the same distance as this high to this low right there. So that’s called a measured move. So that’s kind of what I’m looking for in the indices, but we’re not there yet. Got to clear that 200 day moving average that’s right there with the neckline. Here’s the sector action for today. I already did this at the close. Just want to show you the four day how things are progressing here. Had a bit of a downdraft this week, but we’re seeing industrials and tech leading. But let me show you from the bottom here. We have a clear example of cyclicals leading. These are the sectors that lead with the business cycle that tend to move the best, uh XLK is tech, XLI is industrials, XLY is consumer discretionary, and then this is the S&P 500 and those are outperforming, just underperforming slightly is materials. That’s another cyclical sector. So this is kind of a risk-on environment, and uh it’s something that I’ve been paying a lot of attention to. Again, we’re not crossing the Rubicon just yet, but we are very, very close.
03:00 Speaker A
Also, I hear you’ve been taking a hard look at the dollar again, Jared. What have you been seeing?
03:06 Jared Blickre
Yes. All right. We got a dollar decision to make here because the dollar’s also at a critical juncture. What I found really interesting today was that the dollar and yields were moving in the same direction. Now, before Trump took office and started with the tariff talk and all the tariff enactments, that was the case, but then things changed. They started going in opposite directions. Today, they started going in the same direction again, and I’m going to show you a chart of the US dollar index, and I’ll start with the year to date, and you can see it’s been pretty much from the upper left to the lower right, that is down 8%. That is a big amount for a currency to move, especially the reserve currency of the world in a very short amount of time. What I want to show you here is the three-year chart, because most currencies are mean reverting. That is they tend to go sideways, and when they go to a they travel too high or too low, they tend to go back in the other direction. So this is a three-year chart, and we can see that we came below this support line that we had uh met several times before, and we also recently had a venture above the resistance line that had met at least once, and this was kind of an oops there. That was a fake out, left a lot of people long the dollar, and then they got crushed to the downside. They had to reverse. Maybe we’re seeing the same thing here. Maybe the dollar wants to go higher. And the reason I think that is it’s almost become a consensus trade on Wall Street that the dollar is going to go is going to go lower. So that might not be the case. It could very well do that. But if we go higher, I am expecting to see, what is that, 108 again. And if we go lower, well, let me show you a 10-year chart. We could go a lot lower, and let me just put the max on there. You take a look at the zero, we could go all the way up to, let’s say, 130 or so. So the dollar, if it breaks this level, we got some more support underneath, but I’d say 90 is probably within sight. So that would be a pretty big move for the US dollar.
06:33 Speaker A
Speaking of currencies, crypto making moves.
06:38 Jared Blickre
Yes. Yes, crypto is on the move. It broke out yesterday, and this was after the Fed announcement. Now, crypto doesn’t always lead, but when it does, I pay attention, and it looks like crypto is kind of leading this new risk rally that we saw take place in the post Fed uh post Fed announcement here. This is a uh this is since the bottom. Let me just do a year to date. Actually, let me do an intraday, and then we’ll plot some of these. So Bitcoin is up almost 6% today. Let me show you the year to date on this chart, and this is going to show you that we are marching towards these record highs. This was 107, 108,000, and right down here, remember I said we were going to go to the low 90s. Didn’t quite reach that. Missed it by 2,000, but pretty close, and we just broke up recently here. What I’m also watching is Ethereum. Ethereum’s up 20% today. This is a huge, huge breakout. Uh this is year to date. Let me just show you a one-year chart, and then you can see this line right here. That is a nice break to the upside, and what I like about crypto here is we’re seeing a little bit more participation. Solana is up 11%. Ripple’s up 8% as well.
08:25 Speaker A
I was going to ask you what the other sort of tokens, coins should be on your radar.
08:31 Jared Blickre
Yeah, let me pull up the year to date again on this, and I’m going to show you what I’m looking at uh because I think it’s really favorable. Now, this is year to date, and you see a lot of red here. So this was a negative, but within the last month, that has changed, and let me just show you the equal weight so you can see. Bitcoin’s somewhere in the middle around what, 30, 33, 34% in there, but a lot of tokens doing a lot better. Even Bitcoin cash up 56%, Solana up 53%. I got Monero in the mix there. So all of this together, all of this um bullish action that we’re not just seeing in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the other ones tells me that we probably have the making of another crypto rally at least to the existing highs that we have.
