Phoon sees July as the earliest window for a potential rate cut, and further moves possible in September or November depending on economic data.
INDONESIA
Indonesia’s statistics agency will release first-quarter GDP data on Monday, with growth expected to slow to 4.8% from 5.02% in the previous quarter.
ANZ’s chief economist Sanjay Mathur attributes the expected slowdown to weaker retail sales, loan growth and sentiment along with reduced fiscal spending.
While Indonesia is less exposed to U.S. tariffs than some regional peers, its key commodity exports remain vulnerable to weaker U.S. demand and global trade tensions, he added. Full-year growth is projected at 4.7%, ANZ reckoned.
If its first-quarter GDP and April trade data confirm a further softening of the economy, CIMB economists expect Bank Indonesia to lower rates by 25 basis points in May, followed by a cut each in the third and fourth quarters.
PHILIPPINES
The Philippines will release its first-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday, which will provide insight into how the economy is faring. The Southeast Asian economy posted tepid growth last year and appears to be facing headwinds again this year amid U.S. tariff uncertainty.
In April, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lowered its benchmark overnight reverse repurchase rate and lending rates, citing cooling inflation and trade turmoil abroad.
For the quarter, ING economists expect the economy to have expanded 5.9% compared to a year ago, primarily driven by a rebound in private consumption.
“This recovery, which follows a cooling of inflation, is supported by interest rate cuts and improved monetary policy transmission that boosted credit growth,” they added.
ASIAN CPI DATA
On Tuesday, the Philippines and Thailand will release their April inflation data, which will indicate whether price growth remains within their respective central banks’ target ranges.
Philippine headline inflation should continue to benefit from lower food prices and a more than 5% decline in oil prices last month, ING economists said. However, higher electricity costs are likely to offset these gains, potentially leading to a slight uptick in headline inflation, they added.
In Thailand, ANZ expects headline inflation to fall sharply, weighed down by base effects and government measures to lower retail fuel prices. Core inflation will likely remain subdued, ANZ said. Barring a sharp rebound in commodity prices, ANZ expects inflation to stay below the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range.
TAIWAN
Taiwan will release April inflation data on Wednesday and trade figures on Thursday, which may show signs of strain following a strong start to the year.
Taiwan’s first-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, with exports of goods and services surging 20.11%. Analysts expect artificial intelligence-related demand to remain a key growth driver.
Inflation is likely to have stayed modest last month. Citi forecasts an around 2% rise in consumer prices, helped by a high base effect. While food prices were likely firm, ANZ expects overall inflation to have remained contained near the central bank’s 2.0% target.
Meanwhile, frontloading ahead of U.S. tariffs may have supported Taiwan’s April exports. Economists forecast on-year export growth of between 15.5% and 21.6%. While tariffs could eventually weigh on demand, ANZ’s Sanjay Mathur believes export growth will stay robust in the near term.
–Any references to days are in local times.
–Write to Jessica Fleetham at [email protected] and Jihye Lee at [email protected]
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05-04-25 1714ET
