When it comes to Bitcoin (BTC 0.43%) price forecasts, the one investor who has my attention right now is Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. She is now predicting that Bitcoin will hit a price of $2.4 million by the year 2030.
That’s an eye-popping prediction, especially given Bitcoin’s recent struggles to regain the $100,000 price level this year. Based on today’s prices, a $2.4 million future price tag assumes that Bitcoin will soar by 2,426% over the next five years. So, is she right?
Ark Invest’s Bitcoin valuation model
For several years, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has been using a building block valuation model for Bitcoin. Simply stated, she looks at six key areas where Bitcoin is showing signs of growth and then attempts to forecast how these areas are going to perform over the next five years. She then sums up the value of each of these key areas to arrive at a total valuation for Bitcoin.
Image source: Getty Images.
Right now, the key driver of Bitcoin price growth involves the new spot Bitcoin ETFs. That’s because large institutional investors are continuing to pour money into Bitcoin via these ETFs. If investors decide to ratchet up the percentage of their portfolios allocated to Bitcoin, that should help to send the price of Bitcoin soaring.
In the updated $2.4 million forecast, Cathie Wood thinks that Bitcoin could account for 6.5% of investment portfolios by 2030. That’s an aggressive target because right now, the suggested allocation for Bitcoin is just 2%, and many risk-averse investors may be comfortable with only a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. But it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
What’s changed in 2025?
In Ark Invest’s “Big Ideas 2025” report that was published in January, Cathie Wood arrived at a $1.5 million price tag for Bitcoin. If you compare the numbers used in that report with the numbers used in the updated prediction of $2.4 million, not much has changed. For example, Ark Invest is still using the 6.5% allocation figure for institutional investors.
What has changed, however, is Cathie Wood’s calculation of Bitcoin’s coin supply. Based on her estimates, as much as 40% of Bitcoin’s supply is now “vaulted,” which means that it has been taken off cryptocurrency exchanges and put into private blockchain wallets for safe long-term storage. It also refers to Bitcoin that has been lost or has simply disappeared from circulation.
This missing 40% could have a profound impact on supply and demand. As we know from Economics 101, increased demand for an asset amid declining supply should send the price of that asset soaring higher. Bitcoin, famed for its inherent scarcity, appears to be becoming more scarce over time.
Ark Invest’s updated valuation model uses an experimental new metric called “Liveliness,” which refers to how much of the outstanding Bitcoin supply can be traded on a daily basis. When this “Liveliness” metric is used as part of the valuation model, it results in a much higher price forecast for Bitcoin. You can check the math yourself — it’s all publicly available on the official Ark Invest website.
What else should Bitcoin investors be thinking about?
You might have noticed that I have not once used the word “tariffs” until now. As soon as I heard about Ark Invest’s new $2.4 million price target, I immediately assumed it involved tariffs and global trade policy. But this doesn’t appear to be the case — the updated forecast was based primarily on new thinking about Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
That being said, Ark Invest does point out that more investors are starting to view Bitcoin as “digital gold” and that this is now the second-biggest driver of its future valuation. It also points out that Bitcoin is now being viewed as a potential safe haven asset in many emerging markets, where there are concerns about currency devaluation and hyperinflation.
As tariffs go into effect, keep your eye on these two factors because they could dramatically impact Bitcoin’s future valuation. After all, in Ark Invest’s base-case scenario, Bitcoin only hits a price of $1.2 million. And, in a bear-case scenario, Bitcoin only makes it to $500,000.
For now, I’m focusing on investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. If these hold up well amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and if we start to hear more stories about institutional investors moving their money into Bitcoin, then I’ll be much more confident about Bitcoin hitting the $2.4 million price point within the next five years.
