Bitcoin’s slump to start the year will give way to a fresh rally to record highs this quarter, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick.
Kendrick anticipates that the apex token will reach its next record high in the coming months, with tailwinds helping to push bitcoin to $120,000.
“While timing sharp rises in bitcoin is difficult, we think the current period of potential strategic asset reallocation away from US assets may trigger the next such upswing,” the global head of digital assets research wrote on Monday.
“If so, we would expect a new all-time high to be reached in Q2 with further gains over the summer. We maintain our year-end forecast of USD 200,000.”
The crypto perma-bull’s remarks offer an upbeat perspective on an asset that’s seen a disappointing performance so far this year. Hope was high that crypto-friendly policies from Washington would propel bitcoin to more gains, but it lost momentum after touching $109,000 in January.
Now, Kendrick sees three reasons the token is poised to surge.
Economic jitters raise bitcoin’s appeal
First, economic uncertainties are creating a nurturing environment for crypto. Tariff escalations and threats against Federal Reserve independence have diminished investor appetite for traditional safe-haven trades like US Treasurys and the dollar, as markets grow unsettled about disruptions to long-term monetary and trade norms.
Yet, government-sector risks often directly benefit bitcoin, Kendrick said. An annual high in the 10-year Treasury’s term premium — or the amount of compensation investors demand for holding the asset — suggests that the token could now catch up to recent gains in gold, Kendrick said.
“ETF flows for the latest week suggest that this rotation between safe-haven assets is already underway, with flows from gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs,” he wrote. If this continues, it suggests that investors are beginning to view bitcoin as a better safe-haven than the yellow metal.
Tariff buying
Second, the bank’s analysis shows that US investors have been snapping up bitcoin since President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay of most reciprocal duties on April 9.
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“Since then, while both tech stocks and Bitcoin are higher, Bitcoin has outperformed. The correlation breakdown and US buying suggest that US investors are seeking non-US assets,” Kendrick wrote.
Bitcoin hit its lowest price for 2025 on April 8, trading at around $76,000. It has soared 24% since then.
Meanwhile, bitcoin “whales” — investors who own more than 1,000 bitcoins — have been piling up tokens amid the tariff-induced price slump, Kendrick added.
More catalysts building
Investors should also watch 13Fs filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from US ETFs in mid-May to determine whether institutional support for bitcoin is growing. Kendrick expects the latest filings to demonstrate increased buying from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Meanwhile, Trump has highlighted the possibility of stablecoin legislation this summer, a move that could provide a fresh boost to the crypto market as it continues to expand into the mainstream financial system.
