Investor and CEO Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest firm projects that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million per coin by 2030, according to its newly released Big Ideas 2025 report.
The forecast, detailed this week, highlights institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s role as a “digital gold,” and emerging market demand as the key drivers behind the potential surge.
Why It Matters
Bitcoin is currently trading near $95,000, after reaching a record high of approximately $108,000 in December. ARK’s prediction, if realized, would represent a more than 1,400 percent increase from today’s levels.
The release comes as President Donald Trump, newly returned to the White House, has pledged to boost cryptocurrency adoption and proposed creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the United States.
ROMAIN COSTASECA/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
What to Know
ARK Invest’s primary bull case places Bitcoin at $1.5 million by the end of the decade. Wood’s firm also laid out alternative scenarios: a base case of $710,000 and a bear case of $300,000, according to CCN.
These projections were modeled based on Bitcoin’s penetration rates into various total addressable markets (TAMs), including institutional portfolios, digital gold markets and use as a safe haven asset in emerging economies.
In its most optimistic supplementary modeling, ARK suggested Bitcoin could rise even higher—up to $2.4 million—under more aggressive assumptions about adoption rates, according to Cointelegraph. However, this $2.4 million figure was not the central forecast presented in the Big Ideas 2025 report.
“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” said ARK research analyst David Puell, explaining that a 6.5 percent penetration rate into the $200 trillion global market for financial assets could propel Bitcoin’s price dramatically.
Bitcoin’s growing appeal as “digital gold” was also emphasized, with ARK estimating Bitcoin could capture up to 60 percent of gold’s $18 trillion market cap under favorable conditions. Additionally, Bitcoin’s role in protecting wealth in emerging markets suffering from inflation could be a major driver of demand, contributing substantially to future valuation growth.
Strike CEO Jack Mallers also weighed in on Bitcoin’s prospects, suggesting that Bitcoin could climb to between $250,000 and $1 million by 2030, citing rising dysfunction in traditional financial systems as a tailwind, CCN reported.
Newsweek reached out to ARK for comment via email.
What People Are Saying
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: “With bitcoin, no matter what prediction you read, the answer for where the price is going should always be ‘Nobody knows.’ Bitcoin has had a mixed track record over the last five years. Sometimes it follows market trends, rising and falling as the S&P does. Other times, like recently, some investors look at it as a safe haven like gold from a chaotic currency situation.”
Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: “She has current investments within the crypto-currency space so it is very difficult to take these predictions seriously, especially when ARK Invest has exposure for on and off chain Bitcoin holdings.”
“Investors have soured on Cathie Woods ever since she has failed to replicate the magnificent returns she enjoyed during the pandemic rally. She has experienced significant outflows given her underperformance of the S&P 500 over recent years. To be honest, I often see many pundits bashing her as sort of envious of what she has become in a male dominated industry.”
Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek: “You know what’s fascinating about Bitcoin predictions? They’re essentially financial astrology wrapped in technical jargon. Cathie Wood’s $1.5 million forecast is fueled by institutional FOMO, not fundamentals. Why are smart investors still chasing these moonshot predictions? Because nobody gets famous for saying ‘expect reasonable 7 to 9 percent returns.'”
What’s Next
Bitcoin’s potential climb toward $1.5 million—or beyond—will depend on sustained institutional momentum, geopolitical and economic trends and regulatory developments both in the U.S. and globally.
“For investors, this prediction isn’t a roadmap but more like s a Rorschach test. The true believers will see validation, the skeptics will see delusion, and the market will do whatever it wants regardless,” Ryan said.
Trump’s proposal for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, outlined after his return to the White House, has energized crypto advocates who see government support as a potential catalyst for faster mainstream adoption.
While ARK’s models provide a roadmap for Bitcoin’s potential, the firm acknowledged that risks remain significant, including adoption hurdles and market volatility. Still, Wood’s team sees Bitcoin as uniquely positioned to evolve from a speculative asset into a core pillar of the global financial system.
